This week, trend-followers remained under pressure as markets continued to struggle with fragmentation, reversals, and elevated volatility. While some bearish trends extended, commodities and equities remained choppy, making it difficult to capture sustained momentum.

The TTU Trend Barometer inched up to 32% (from 25% last week) but remains well below trend-friendly conditions, reinforcing the ongoing difficulty in navigating market trends.

SG Trend Index Performance

• MTD: -2.60% (vs. -0.45% last week)
• YTD: -2.46% (vs. -0.30% last week)

Key Market Highlights:

• Lumber (+4.03%) – Supply constraints, tariff uncertainties, and increased demand from reconstruction efforts drove prices higher.
• Feeder Cattle (+1.99%) – The bullish trend continued, supported by tight supplies and strong demand.
• Palladium (-8.07%) – The metal plunged as auto tariffs and oversupply weighed on demand.
• Wheat (-8.03%) – Lower global import demand and favorable growing conditions triggered a sharp decline.
• Natural Gas (-7.51%) – A downturn driven by mild weather and rising production, reversing last week’s gains.
• VIX (+3.27%) – Volatility climbed again, signaling elevated market uncertainty and risk-off positioning.

Navigating Market Trends

With bearish trends strengthening in select commodities, trend-followers found opportunities on the short side. However, continued reversals and false breakouts made risk management and systematic discipline essential. The coming weeks will determine whether these moves develop into sustained trends or if choppiness persists.

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Get the full breakdown of this week’s market moves, key causal factors, and trend-following implications.