Cracks in the Cohesion — March 2025 Trend Following Report

Not all trend followers are experiencing the same market.

That’s the central insight from our latest TTU Trend Following Performance Report for March 2025 — a month that exposed sharp divergence between diversified CTAs and pure trend-following strategies.

While the BTOP 50 Index clawed its way to a modest +0.69%, the SG Trend Index and the TTU Trend Following Index both fell deeper into negative territory — marking the third straight losing month for trend-purist programs.

So what happened?

March brought fragmentation without direction. Metals reversed again. Energy markets whipsawed with geopolitical noise. Grains and FX stayed neutral or incoherent. Across the board, trend signals flickered without follow-through — leaving systems exposed to cost without payoff.

This month’s report digs deep into:

  • Comparative index performance (SG Trend, BTOP 50, TTU TF Index)

  • Ongoing weakness in the TTU Trend Barometer

  • A detailed breakdown of index construction methodologies

  • Standout managers in CAGR, Serenity Ratio, and 12-month returns

  • Updated performance of our TTU Serenity Top 5 Portfolio

  • An in-depth look at the alternative 60/40 portfolio using trend-followers in place of bonds

We don’t just track the data — we unpack the story it’s telling. And right now, that story is one of divergence, discipline, and waiting for conviction to return.

Read the report by clicking here.

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