Cracks in the Compass: Systemic Reversals Rock Trend: 11 April 2025
This week, markets didn’t just wobble—they inverted. What was red turned green. What was trending collapsed. And even the strongest trend-followers struggled to stay upright amid one of the most violent cross-asset reversals in years.
SG Trend Index Performance:
- MTD: -6.43% (vs. -0.34% last week)
- YTD: -10.79% (vs. -4.98% last week)
TTU Trend Barometer:
- Dropped to 55% (from 68%) — the spike was a mirage. The real story? Exhaustion, not emergence.
Key Market Highlights:
- VIX (+6.01%) – Elevated volatility still signals systemic stress
- 30-Year Bond (-6.3%) – The “safe haven” collapsed, sending a warning
- WTI Crude (-1.97%) – Energy trends persisted… in the wrong direction
- Gold (+6.23%) – The haven returned, reaffirming market fear
- USD (-0.98%) – A falling dollar stripped the last macro anchor
- Silver (+10.14%), Equities (+3.4%), Metals (+4.88%) – Snapped back too fast for re-entry
Trend-Following Insight:
Not every market reversed. But enough did—and in sync—to overwhelm diversification. Even long-tested models faltered as bonds reversed, energy bled, and correlations converged. This wasn’t just drawdown. It was regime rupture.
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Stay mechanical. Stay humble. Survival is the strategy.