In the Beginning there was Trend Following – Conclusion – Part 20
Trend Following Primer Series – Conclusion: All Things Come to an End, Even Trends – Part 20
Primer Series Contents
- An Introduction- Part 1
- Care Less about Trend Form and More about the Bias within it- Part 2
- Divergence, Convergence and Noise – Part 3
- Revealing Non-Randomness through the Market Distribution of Returns – Part 4
- Characteristics of Complex Adaptive Markets – Part 5
- The Search for Sustainable Trading Models – Part 6
- The Need for an Enduring Edge – Part 7
- Compounding, Path Dependence and Positive Skew – Part 8
- A Risk Adjusted Approach to Maximise Geometric Returns – Part 9
- Diversification is Never Enough…for Trend Followers – Part 10
- Correlation Between Return Streams – Where all the Wiggling Matters – Part 11
- The Pain Arbitrage of Trend Following – Part 12
- Building a Diversified, Systematic, Trend Following Model – Part 13
- A Systematic Workflow Process Applied to Data Mining – Part 14
- Put Your Helmets On, It’s Time to Go Mining – Part 15
- The Robustness Phase – T’is But a Scratch – Part 16
- There is no Permanence, Only Change – Part 17
- Compiling a Sub Portfolio: A First Glimpse of our Creation – Part 18
- The Court Verdict: A Lesson In Hubris – Part 19
- Conclusion: All Things Come to an End, Even Trends – Part 20
Conclusion: All Things Come to an End
All things come to an end, even this Primer series, but what a ride it has been.
We have explored the very many facets of a trend following philosophy from a narrator, who is dedicated to this cause.
This is just one interpretation of the “Trend Following Way”, as there are just so many more others. We can pick up pieces of this philosophy from a host of legendary traders, philosophers and scientists who have discovered that there is never any permanence in this vast complex system of ours, only change.
Currently this journey rests as a Primer Series in a series of Blog posts, but as you may have all guessed by now, this is just the skeleton for a coming E-book. There will be many edits of this Primer series before we call it a day, but the foundation of the E-book is now complete. I will be editing this series for a while, based on feedback and any change in mind, I have from this point in time on….but I am getting very familiar with change. Nothing is ever written in stone.
Having this Primer Series in electronic form is of great value to me. It allows me to continue working on this series via updates as new ideas and new opinions evolve over time. Such flexibility is not offered by a publication with a due date.
I hope you enjoyed the read up to this point in time. It only represents one opinion, but at least now that I have this opinion in writing, it provides a journal and a reminder for me of how I eventually came to this very strong viewpoint about Trend Following. I can comfortably say that it is the most superior method of trading these markets I have ever encountered over my now long trading career.
I am getting on now and unfortunately I wasn’t able to jump on board this gravy train in my youth, where I could have taken full advantage of the miracles of compounding, however I feel that this series might give a leg up to those more youthful types, where they can apply some of these principles to make their trading careers more fulfilling and sustainable.
This journey has explored the mind, the natural world, the financial systems and a class of trader who are embedded in this epic riddle, namely the diversified systematic trend following community. I feel very close to this group and hope that I have done a service to them with this series.
Trend following is far more than just a way to trade the financial markets. It is a recipe to lead a fulfilling life. It gives us a way to deal with the very thing we most fear. Change.
Most of our lives, we struggle with this concept. We want to hold on to the familiar with our dear lives and control every moment within it.
But there is an alternative way to deal with change and that is to embrace it. Go with the flow and recognise that we are just a small piece of this majesty, we call this complex system….our universe.
Will trends die like many tend to think. That is a bit like asking, will the planet stop changing, will society stop changing and will the financial markets stop trending? There will of course be long periods of time where the surf is mute, but if we are patient and just sit long enough on that beach somewhere, the swells will inevitably roll in. You can count on it. This isn’t a trading statement, this is a universal statement. We will all be long gone before the Trends end.
Follow the trend my dear friends, until of course it all must end.
Many thanks for stopping by and reading this journey. It has been a blast but look at the time…..I will see you to the door with one of my favorite ‘thinking and melancholic tunes’ once again from Paul Schwartz with thanks going out to those that inspired this writing.
Trade well and prosper
The ATS mob