This week, trend-followers encountered a fragmented and volatile market landscape. Sharp reversals in key assets like coffee, cocoa, and orange juice rattled trend-following positions, while energy provided some relief. The TTU Trend Barometer fell further to 25% (from 35% last week), reinforcing the challenging conditions for capturing sustained trends. However, as always, emerging opportunities remain for those who stay disciplined.

SG Trend Index Performance

• MTD: -0.45% (vs. +1.22% last week)
• YTD: -0.30% (vs. +2.12% last week)

Key Market Highlights:

• Natural Gas (+17.6%) – Another strong bullish move, fueled by Arctic weather and tight supply conditions.
• Sugar (+3.91%) – Early mill closures and export restrictions tightened global supplies, sending prices higher.
• Cocoa (-9.78%) – A major reversal after record highs, as demand concerns and margin increases pressured prices.
• Orange Juice (-8.91%) – Continued bearish momentum, signaling the end of the prior bullish environment.
• Coffee (-4.74%) – A sharp pullback after an extended rally, likely due to market corrections and shifting demand.
• VIX (+4.14%) – Volatility surged, reflecting growing uncertainty across equities and commodities.

Navigating Market Shifts
The sharp reversals in some of the strongest prior trends highlight the importance of risk management and systematic discipline in trading. While conditions remain challenging, trend-followers must stay adaptable—some markets are breaking down, while others hint at new opportunities.

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Stay systematic. Stay disciplined. Stay ready.