Non-linear systems that allow for non-deterministic (intractable) outcomes necessitate probabilistic heuristic mind sets to address them. To have any attempt of matching your mental models with the reality you need to embrace bayesian thinking, fat tailed distributions and asymmetries. So let’s have a look at spies, crime and lightning strikes to see how.

The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikes

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