“Shifting Trends: A Market in Transition”

This week, trend-followers saw a market environment filled with mixed signals—while equities and metals surged, energy and soft commodities remained under pressure. The TTU Trend Barometer fell to 27% (from 32% last week), highlighting a fragmented and challenging trend-following landscape. However, pockets of momentum are emerging, offering potential opportunities ahead.

SG Trend Index Performance

• MTD: +0.75% (vs. -0.98% last week)
• YTD: +0.90% (vs. -0.83% last week)

Key Market Highlights:

• Natural Gas (+12.6%) – A strong retracement back into bullish momentum, driven by colder weather and supply constraints.
• Sugar (+5.37%) – A volatile market move as early Indian sugar mill closures and tightening global supply lifted prices.
• DAX (+3.29%) – Equities rallied on positive earnings surprises and easing geopolitical tensions.
• Wheat (+3.22%) – Short-covering and supply risks in Russia drove an unexpected rebound.
• Lumber (+3.21%) – Increased demand from post-wildfire reconstruction and supply chain disruptions contributed to a rally.
• Orange Juice (-18.73%) – A steep decline as demand destruction and shifting supply dynamics reversed months of bullish momentum.
• VIX (-7.18%) – Market volatility dropped, signaling a more stable trading environment for equities.

Navigating an Uncertain Trend Landscape

While trend strength remains low, early signs of momentum-building suggest a potential shift in conditions. Systematic traders must stay disciplined—some markets are heating up, while others remain in flux. Patience and risk management will be key in positioning for emerging opportunities.

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