Introduction

The world of systematic trend following continues to evolve, where seasoned expertise meets rising talent to shape the industry’s future. Rising Stars and Trend Titans is your go-to monthly report, spotlighting standout performers who define and redefine the landscape of trend following.

For February 2025, we analyse the performance of 108 globally diversified programs, each with a verified track record of at least five years. This report continues to highlight the enduring strength of established industry titans while uncovering the next generation of rising stars making their mark in systematic trading. By featuring both, we capture the dynamic interplay of experience, innovation, and adaptability that drives trend-following success.

This month’s results reflect how these 108 programs navigated an increasingly complex and opportunity-rich market landscape. Their performance showcases a compelling blend of robust methodologies and strategic agility—offering valuable insights into how systematic managers responded to global trends in February.

Criteria for Inclusion

The “Rising Stars and Trend Titans” blog evaluates globally diversified systematic trend-following programs that meet specific criteria to ensure consistency, reliability, and relevance. Here’s what makes a program eligible for inclusion:

1. Validated Track Record:
   Only programs with a minimum of five years of performance history are considered. This ensures that the strategies have been tested across varying market conditions and are not short-term anomalies.
2. Global Diversification:
   Programs must demonstrate diversification across multiple asset classes, including equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies. This ensures their ability to capture trends across a wide spectrum of markets.
3. Systematic Approach:
   All included programs must follow a systematic, rules-based approach to trend following, eliminating discretionary bias and focusing on process-driven decision-making.
4. Performance Reporting:
   Programs must provide consistent, validated monthly performance data. The data is drawn from the widely respected Nilsson Hedge Database, ensuring accuracy and credibility.
5. Program Scope:
   While established players are naturally included, we also feature rising stars who may have shorter overall histories but have achieved standout results within the five-year threshold. This focus ensures a balanced view of the established and emerging talent in the industry.

For a full listing of the programs featured in this month’s report, click on the following link to download, Database List February 2025

Benchmark Performance Overview

February 2025 was a challenging month for systematic trend followers, with the benchmark tracking 108 globally diversified programs falling by -2.59%. This decline reflects a market environment where prevailing trends either reversed or weakened, highlighting the natural ebb and flow inherent in trend-following strategies.

On a trailing 12-month basis, the benchmark is down -4.41%, underscoring a tough year for many managers in the space. Despite recent headwinds, long-term performance remains intact, with a 5-year cumulative return of 38.36% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.71%, continuing to showcase the structural strength of systematic trend-following over market cycles.

The benchmark’s maximum drawdown over the five-year period stands at 11.49%, while the Managed Account Ratio (MAR) holds at 0.58, offering a balanced view of return versus risk. Importantly, skew remains positive at 0.13, suggesting that, over time, upside months have tended to outweigh the downside — a characteristic feature of asymmetric trend-following payoffs.

This benchmark remains a critical reference point for evaluating individual managers. It highlights the resilience and variation across strategies, offering valuable insight into how different programs weather volatility, trend shifts, and macro uncertainty.

The following sections will break down individual manager performance, highlighting both rising stars and seasoned titans within the trend-following space.

Top 10 List: Month Performance for February 2025

Amid a tough month for the broader trend-following universe, several managers stood out by delivering strong positive returns in February. These Top 10 programs significantly outperformed the benchmark’s -2.59% result, demonstrating the diversity and resilience of different systematic approaches.

AQR Capital Management took the top spot with its Managed Futures HV Strategy, posting a +4.74% return. With a 5-year CAGR of 12.26% and a MAR ratio of 0.79, this high-volatility strategy continues to deliver compelling long-term results, even through periods of market stress.

Also in the spotlight was QQFund.com’s Alpha Beta Program, returning +3.71% for the month. While the strategy has faced longer-term challenges, including a 5-year CAGR of -0.11%, it showed notable resilience this month.

AQR Capital Management made a double appearance, with its flagship Managed Futures program returning +2.91% in February. With a solid long-term track record (CAGR: 9.24%, MAR: 0.93), it remains a staple among industry titans.

Other notable entries include:

• Metori Capital Management’s Epsilon Global Trend (Lyxor) with a +2.27% return, showing steady consistency across volatile periods.
• Mandatum’s Life Managed Futures Fund added +1.56%, now boasting a 5-year CAGR of 8.63%.
• Incline Investment Management’s Crystal Bay Ubitrend came in at +1.3%, despite longer-term challenges with trend consistency.
• Both DIVAS and Fisch Asset Management made the list with their Trend Navigator strategies, delivering +1.2% and +1.14%, respectively.
• Capital Fund Management’s CFM IST 1.5XF-2 15% Volatility returned +1.05%, with one of the strongest 5-year CAGRs in the group (17.97%) and a stellar MAR of 1.88.
• Rounding out the list, Graham Capital’s Proprietary Matrix delivered +1.01%, continuing its steady performance profile.

While February proved difficult for the benchmark, the outperformance of these Top 10 programs underscores the heterogeneous nature of systematic trend-following strategies. From high-volatility powerhouses to risk-adjusted compounding specialists, these managers demonstrated the capacity to extract returns in adverse market conditions.

Monthly Dispersion Summary: February 2025

February 2025 delivered a wide dispersion of returns across the 108 reporting systematic trend-following programs, reflecting a highly divergent performance landscape as strategies responded differently to shifting market conditions.

• Max Return: +4.74%
• Min Return: -19.54%
• Mean Return: -2.59%
• Median Return: -1.93%
• Standard Deviation: 3.45%
• Total Programs Reporting: 108

The return distribution was negatively skewed, with a significant tail on the downside. While several top-performing managers delivered solid gains, the majority of programs clustered between -5% and 0%, with the highest frequency around the -2% mark. A few outliers on the downside, including returns below -10%, pulled the average return lower than the median, indicating substantial underperformance among certain strategies.

The right-hand chart tracking monthly standard deviations over time reveals that volatility remains elevated compared to 2021–2022 levels, though lower than the peaks seen during the sharp dislocations of mid-2024. February’s standard deviation of 3.45% sits comfortably within the higher range of post-2020 dispersion, reinforcing that trend followers continue to navigate an environment of uneven return opportunities and rotational market behaviour.

This broad range of outcomes highlights the importance of strategy differentiation. While some managers thrived by capturing idiosyncratic trends or adapting quickly to reversals, others struggled amid noise and trend fragmentation—reinforcing why dispersion metrics remain essential for evaluating robustness in systematic trading approaches.

Top 10 List: 5-Year CAGR

Long-term performance remains the ultimate benchmark for evaluating the durability and adaptability of systematic trend-following strategies. The top 10 programs ranked by 5-Year CAGR continue to showcase impressive compounding power, with standout performers navigating multiple market regimes with resilience and conviction.

Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program once again leads the field with a remarkable 5-year CAGR of 55.70%, supported by a cumulative gain of 815%. While the strategy carries significant volatility (Max DD: 39.22%), its MAR ratio of 1.42 reflects its enduring long-term edge.

Bowmoor Capital makes two appearances, with both the standard and Share Class D versions of its Global Alpha Fund delivering 22.79% and 20.50% CAGRs, respectively. With MARs of 1.65 and 1.47, these programs combine high returns with effective risk management, establishing themselves as trend-following powerhouses.

Not far behind, Purple Valley Capital’s Diversified Trend 1 recorded a 21.41% CAGR, although its high volatility (Max DD: 47.63%) places its MAR at 0.45, highlighting a more aggressive approach to trend capture.

Other notable long-term performers include:

• Capital Fund Management’s CFM IST Ltd 1.5XF-2 15% Volatility with a 17.97% CAGR and a robust MAR of 1.88
• East Coast Capital Management’s ECCM STF at 15.77% CAGR with a standout MAR of 2.55
• Bastiat Capital’s Divergence Program, delivering 14.16% CAGR and MAR of 1.48
• Michael J Frischmeyer’s Managed Account Program, a veteran strategy dating back to 1981, still compounding at 13.17% CAGR
• Capital Fund Management’s IS Trends Fund, rounding out the top list with a 12.82% CAGR and an impressive 2.11 MAR

These results reinforce that while some programs favor aggressive compounding through high-volatility trend capture, others focus on smoother, risk-adjusted returns. Regardless of the path, these top 10 programs set the bar for what sustained excellence looks like in systematic trend following.

Dispersion of 5-Year CAGR: Summary

The dispersion of 5-Year Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) across the 108 reporting systematic trend-following programs reveals a wide spectrum of long-term performance outcomes.

• Max CAGR: 55.70%
• Min CAGR: -10.60%
• Mean CAGR: 6.11%
• Median CAGR: 5.00%
• Standard Deviation: 7.37%
• Total Reporting: 108 programs

The distribution is right-skewed, with the majority of managers clustered between 0% and 10% CAGR, but a select few delivering substantially higher long-term returns. At the upper extreme, Mulvaney Capital Management leads with a standout CAGR of 55.70%, while a small number of underperforming programs posted negative long-term growth, bottoming out at -10.60%.

The clustering of results in the 4%–8% CAGR range reflects a strong central tendency, though the outliers—both positive and negative—demonstrate the variability in how different models have responded to the market environment over the past five years.

Key Observations:

• Over 70% of programs achieved positive 5-year CAGRs, reinforcing trend following’s enduring robustness despite pockets of underperformance.
• The long tail of negative CAGRs highlights that while systematic trading offers advantages, it is not immune to poor design, poor adaptation, or overfitting.
• The standard deviation of 7.37% shows meaningful spread across manager outcomes, reinforcing the importance of due diligence in strategy selection.

In a field where process and discipline are key, dispersion tells a deeper story. It separates the truly adaptive and robust systems from those that fail to evolve—underscoring that long-term success in trend following comes from more than just riding trends. It comes from managing risk, adapting to structure shifts, and sticking to process when uncertainty reigns.

Top 10 List: 5-Year MAR Leaders

The MAR ratio (CAGR divided by Max Drawdown) is one of the most telling metrics in systematic trend following. It highlights a manager’s ability to generate returns while managing downside risk — a key attribute for compounding over the long haul.

East Coast Capital Management’s ECCM STF tops the MAR leaderboard again with a stellar 2.55, blending a 15.77% CAGR with a relatively low 6.20% maximum drawdown. This combination of growth and stability continues to distinguish it as one of the most risk-efficient trend-following programs in the industry.

Standpoint’s Multi-Asset Fund follows closely, delivering a 12.37% CAGR and a MAR of 2.33. With a drawdown of only 5.31%, this program highlights the power of smoother compounding and a risk-conscious mandate.

Also high on the list is Capital Fund Management’s IS Trends Fund, with a MAR of 2.11 and a 12.82% CAGR, reflecting consistency and robust downside control. Its sister program, CFM IST 1.5XF-2 15% Volatility, earned a 1.88 MAR while maintaining a solid 17.97% CAGR, showcasing scalability and effective risk calibration.

Other notable entries:

• Bowmoor Capital’s Global Alpha Fund and Share Class D continue to impress, posting MARs of 1.65 and 1.47, respectively, alongside double-digit CAGRs.
• Bastiat Capital’s Divergence Program features again with a 1.48 MAR, balancing upside capture and volatility.
• Mulvaney Capital Management, while leading on CAGR, still maintains a commendable 1.42 MAR, despite its high-volatility profile.
• Campbell & Company’s Managed Futures and MS Capital Management Limited round out the top 10 with MARs just above 1, reflecting veteran consistency across market regimes.

CAGR vs. Drawdown Analysis

The accompanying scatterplot offers a visual look at the trade-off between CAGR and drawdown for the top MAR-ranked programs. Key insights:

• Mulvaney Capital Management stands apart, with the highest CAGR but also the highest drawdown — reinforcing its high-risk, high-reward profile.
• ECCM STF and IS Trends Fund occupy the sweet spot of high return-to-risk efficiency.
• Several programs — including Standpoint, Capital Fund Management, and Bowmoor Capital — cluster around the region of moderate CAGR with low drawdowns, indicating a balanced performance posture.

This view highlights that while some strategies pursue aggressive compounding, others prioritize smooth, risk-adjusted growth. The takeaway is clear: high MAR strategies are often best positioned for long-term capital preservation and growth across cycles.

CAGR% vs Max DD% Scatterplot: All Programs

The full-universe scatterplot of 5-Year CAGR vs. Maximum Drawdown for all 108 programs offers a broad visual snapshot of how trend-following strategies trade off return and risk over the long term.

Key Observations:

• Wide dispersion in performance: CAGR values span from negative returns to well over 100%, while drawdowns range from under 10% to over 60%, showcasing the diverse strategic profiles across the systematic trend-following landscape.
• High return outliers: Several programs to the far right exhibit exceptional CAGR figures nearing or exceeding 100%, though most come with drawdowns in the 15%–40% range, reinforcing the classic high-risk, high-reward dynamic.
• Low drawdown cluster: A significant number of programs are clustered around 10–20% drawdown, with CAGRs in the 5%–15% range — suggesting a strong segment of risk-managed strategies prioritizing long-term capital preservation.
• Drawdown outliers: A handful of programs experienced drawdowns in excess of 50%, reflecting more aggressive volatility exposure. These typically correspond to either very high or very low CAGRs, underlining the importance of context in interpreting raw return metrics.

What This Means for Investors and Allocators

This plot reinforces that trend-following strategies are not monolithic. While some chase alpha through aggressive trend amplification, others aim to minimize downside while compounding steadily. The key takeaway:

• CAGR alone isn’t enough — Investors must evaluate how those returns are achieved relative to drawdowns.
• Programs with efficient return-to-risk ratios — especially those with high MARs — may offer more sustainable long-term utility.
• Diversity is a feature, not a flaw — this dispersion enables allocators to build multi-manager portfolios that balance offensive and defensive trend exposures.

In short, the scatterplot is a testament to the richness of the systematic space — and a call to look beyond headline returns when assessing manager quality.

Conclusion

February 2025 served as a sharp reminder that systematic trend following, while powerful over time, is never immune to short-term reversals. With the benchmark down -2.59% and dispersion elevated, the month exposed the spectrum of outcomes within the trend-following universe — from standout gains to steep drawdowns.

Yet even in a challenging month, the long-term signals remain clear.

East Coast Capital Management’s ECCM STF continues to shine as a masterclass in risk-adjusted excellence, leading the 5-year MAR rankings with 2.55, and demonstrating that precision in risk management pays dividends over time. Meanwhile, Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program maintains its place atop the CAGR charts with an astonishing 55.70% five-year rate of return — a high-volatility strategy that continues to redefine what’s possible in systematic compounding.

Bowmoor Capital, Capital Fund Management, Standpoint, and Bastiat Capital also feature prominently across both return and MAR rankings, proving that excellence comes in many forms — from raw performance to return-to-risk optimization. These programs continue to raise the bar for what it means to thrive across market regimes.

February’s wide performance dispersion and return asymmetry once again underscore a core truth: not all trend-following strategies are created equal. The best programs aren’t just capturing trends — they’re adapting to them, managing risk in real time, and aligning with robust processes that compound capital, not just in bull markets, but through complexity and change.

As we move further into 2025, Rising Stars and Trend Titans remains your guide to identifying the managers shaping the future of systematic trading — those who not only survive volatility but harness it.

Congratulations to this month’s leaders — and to all programs continuing to push the boundaries of what’s possible in systematic trend following.