Introduction

The world of systematic trend following continues to evolve, where seasoned expertise meets rising talent to shape the industry’s future. Rising Stars and Trend Titans is your go-to monthly report, spotlighting standout performers who define and redefine the landscape of trend-following.

For January 2025, we analyse the performance of 108 globally diversified programs, each with a verified track record of at least five years. This report highlights the enduring strength of established industry titans while uncovering the next generation of rising stars who are making their mark in systematic trading. By featuring both, we capture the dynamic interplay of experience, innovation, and adaptability that drives trend-following success.

As we kick off the new year, these 108 programs offer key insights into how systematic strategies navigated a challenging yet opportunity-rich market environment. Their results reflect a compelling balance between cutting-edge innovation and the resilience of time-tested methodologies. Let’s dive into how these managers harnessed global trends to deliver standout performance this month.

Criteria for Inclusion

The “Rising Stars and Trend Titans” blog evaluates globally diversified systematic trend-following programs that meet specific criteria to ensure consistency, reliability, and relevance. Here’s what makes a program eligible for inclusion:

1. Validated Track Record:
   Only programs with a minimum of five years of performance history are considered. This ensures that the strategies have been tested across varying market conditions and are not short-term anomalies.
2. Global Diversification:
   Programs must demonstrate diversification across multiple asset classes, including equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies. This ensures their ability to capture trends across a wide spectrum of markets.
3. Systematic Approach:
   All included programs must follow a systematic, rules-based approach to trend following, eliminating discretionary bias and focusing on process-driven decision-making.
4. Performance Reporting:
   Programs must provide consistent, validated monthly performance data. The data is drawn from the widely respected Nilsson Hedge Database, ensuring accuracy and credibility.
5. Program Scope:
   While established players are naturally included, we also feature rising stars who may have shorter overall histories but have achieved standout results within the five-year threshold. This focus ensures a balanced view of the established and emerging talent in the industry.

For a full listing of the programs featured in this month’s report click here Database List January 2025

Benchmark Performance Overview

January 2025 saw a 1.09% gain for the benchmark tracking the 108 systematically managed trend-following programs, continuing the resilience of diversified trend-following strategies. Over the past 12 months, the benchmark has returned 3.70%, while the 5-year cumulative performance stands at 41.34%, reflecting the long-term robustness of trend-following models.

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over five years remains at 7.16%, underscoring the steady compounding power of systematic strategies with a maximum drawdown (Max DD) of 11.17% over the period. With a Managed Account Ratio (MAR) of 0.64, the benchmark maintains a healthy return-to-risk profile.

Skew remains slightly positive at 0.08, indicating a tendency for returns to favour the upside, though with some asymmetry.

This benchmark serves as an essential tool for evaluating individual programs, offering context on industry-wide performance while accounting for varying market conditions. It highlights the breadth and resilience of systematic trend-following strategies, enabling a better understanding of how diverse approaches navigate global markets.

The following sections will break down individual manager performance, highlighting both rising stars and seasoned titans within the trend-following space.

Top 10 List: Month Performance for January 2025

As systematic trend-following strategies navigated the start of the new year, January 2025 saw strong performances from both industry titans and rising stars. This month’s top 10 programs showcased an impressive mix of long-established names and emerging managers who capitalized on prevailing market trends.

Leading the pack was Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program, delivering a stellar 12.45% return in January and a remarkable 101.23% return over the past 12 months. This performance underscores its high-risk, high-reward approach, as reflected in its 1.48 MAR ratio and 39.22% maximum drawdown over the five-year period.

DUNN Capital Management secured two spots in the top 10 with WMA (6.74%) and Managed Futures Strategy (Arrow) (6.56%), both benefiting from well-executed trend captures. Their low correlation to the benchmark (0.82 and 0.84, respectively) suggests their unique portfolio construction contributes to diversifying trend-following exposure.

Among the standout performers was Bowmoor Capital’s Global Alpha Fund, which posted a 5.71% return in January, bringing its five-year cumulative gain to 202.06%. The fund’s 31.03% return over the last 12 months reflects its ability to thrive in volatile conditions, positioning it as a force to watch.

Other notable mentions include:

• Hamer Trading’s Systematic Diversified Program (5.18%)
• Campbell & Company’s Managed Futures (4.94%)
• East Coast Capital Management’s ECCM STF (4.2%), reinforcing the program’s strong risk-adjusted returns with a MAR ratio of 2.59.

The benchmark for 108 reporting programs returned 1.09% for the month, with the top 10 performers significantly outpacing the broader trend-following universe. These results highlight the diversity of systematic approaches, from high-volatility strategies to more conservative risk-managed programs.

Monthly Dispersion Summary: January 2025

January 2025 delivered a wide dispersion of returns across the 108 reporting systematic trend-following programs, reflecting the diverse nature of trend-capturing strategies in a dynamic market environment.

• Max Return: +12.45%
• Min Return: -2.3%
• Mean Return: +1.09%
• Median Return: +0.78%
• Standard Deviation: 2.09%

The distribution of returns shows a positively skewed profile, with most managers clustered between 0% and 2%, while a select few programs significantly outperformed. The highest returning program, Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program (+12.45%), drove the upper tail of the distribution. Meanwhile, the lowest return of -2.3% reflects the relatively moderate downside volatility among reporting managers.

The long-term dispersion of monthly returns (right chart) indicates continued fluctuations in standard deviation, with volatility levels remaining within historical norms. While dispersion remains elevated compared to early 2020, it has gradually stabilized after the peaks observed in 2022-2023, highlighting a more consistent, though still dynamic, risk-return environment for trend followers.

This broad range of outcomes reinforces the importance of strategy selection, as different programs exhibit varying levels of trend sensitivity, volatility management, and risk-adjusted return potential.

Top 10 List: 5-Year CAGR

For systematic trend followers, long-term performance is the ultimate test of robustness. The top-performing programs over the past five years continue to demonstrate exceptional compounding power, balancing trend sensitivity with risk-adjusted returns.

Top Performers Over 5 Years

• Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program remains the standout performer with an impressive 57.92% CAGR over five years, fuelled by its highly volatile but opportunistic strategy. Despite a 39.22% maximum drawdown, its MAR ratio of 1.48 reflects strong long-term resilience.
• Bowmoor Capital’s Global Alpha Fund follows closely with a 24.74% CAGR, leveraging its trend-exploiting framework to outperform traditional benchmarks.
• East Coast Capital Management’s ECCM STF ranks among the elite with a 16.06% CAGR, showcasing stable trend capture with a MAR ratio of 2.59, one of the highest in the group.
• Transtrend’s Tulip Trend Fund (15.46% CAGR) and Salus Alpha Capital’s Directional Markets (15.44% CAGR) maintain consistent strength, highlighting the adaptability of diversified, systematic approaches.

Key Observations

• High Skewness: Several top performers exhibit positive skew, reflecting the asymmetric return profile that trend-following strategies thrive on.
• Risk-Adjusted Returns Matter: While some managers maximize CAGR through high-volatility strategies, others, such as ECCM STF (MAR 2.59) and Capital Fund Management’s CFM ISTEC Fund (MAR 1.79), prioritize a higher return-to-risk ratio.
• Diversified Strategies Winning: A mix of high-volatility, high-return strategies and smoother, more risk-conscious approaches dominates the leaderboard, showing that different methodologies can achieve strong long-term results.

As systematic traders look ahead, these programs continue to set the benchmark for compounding capital in trend-following strategies.

Dispersion of 5-Year CAGR: Summary

The dispersion of 5-year compound annual growth rates (CAGR) across the 108 reporting systematic trend-following programs reflects the broad spectrum of strategy performance in the space.

Key Statistics:

• Max CAGR: 57.92% (Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program)
• Min CAGR: -8.25%
• Mean CAGR: 6.75%
• Median CAGR: 6.00%
• Standard Deviation: 6.90%

The distribution of long-term returns highlights a concentration of managers achieving moderate CAGR levels between 4% and 8%, with a few standout performers generating significantly higher returns. The long tail of underperformers—some with negative CAGR over five years—reinforces the importance of risk management and adaptability in systematic trend following.

Observations:

• The majority of programs (over 70%) have CAGR between 0% and 12%, indicating a broadly stable return profile across the industry.
• Outliers such as Mulvaney Capital Management (57.92% CAGR) significantly exceed the industry norm, showcasing the potential of high-volatility approaches.
• Negative CAGR values are relatively rare but highlight programs that struggled to adapt to market conditions over the long term.

The overall results reinforce that systematic trend-following strategies remain effective over multi-year horizons, with well-executed models achieving strong compounding despite market cycles.

Top 10 List: 5-Year MAR Leaders

The MAR ratio (CAGR / Max Drawdown) is a key measure of a trend-following program’s ability to balance performance with drawdown management. The top 10 MAR-ranked programs over the last five years demonstrate a strong mix of high-return and risk-efficient strategies, highlighting their ability to navigate market volatility while maximizing long-term compounding.

Top MAR Leaders

• East Coast Capital Management’s ECCM STF leads the list with a stellar MAR ratio of 2.59, combining a 16.06% CAGR with a modest 6.20% maximum drawdown. This highlights strong risk-adjusted performance and reinforces why risk control is a major factor in sustained success.
• Standpoint’s Multi-Asset Fund (MAR 2.27) follows closely, demonstrating steady performance with a CAGR of 12.73% and a relatively contained 5.31% drawdown.
• Bowmoor Capital’s Global Alpha Fund (MAR 1.79) and Capital Fund Management’s IS Trends Fund (MAR 1.65) further underscore how diverse systematic strategies can generate exceptional long-term returns while managing risk efficiently.

Key Observations:

• Balancing Growth & Stability: Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program tops the CAGR leaderboard at 57.92% but its higher drawdown of 39.22% results in a lower MAR (1.48), illustrating the trade-off between aggressive compounding and capital preservation.
• Steady & Resilient Programs: Funds like Campbell & Company’s Managed Futures (MAR 1.15) and Salus Alpha Capital’s Directional Markets (MAR 1.12) showcase consistent performance over multiple cycles, maintaining stable return profiles despite varying market conditions.

CAGR vs. Drawdown Analysis

The scatterplot below visualizes the relationship between CAGR and Max Drawdown among the top MAR-ranked programs. While some managers prioritize absolute return growth, others focus on maximizing return per unit of risk, striking a balance that enhances long-term survivability in systematic trading.

These results reinforce that managers with strong MAR ratios not only survive but thrive across market regimes, demonstrating the importance of a robust risk-management framework in trend following.

CAGR% vs Max DD% Scatterplot

The scatterplot of CAGR vs. Max Drawdown across all programs provides a visual representation of how different systematic trend-following strategies manage the trade-off between long-term returns and risk exposure.

Key Observations:

• Wide dispersion in performance: The dataset spans a broad range of CAGR values, from negative growth to well over 100% annually, showcasing the diversity of trend-following methodologies.
• Higher returns often come with higher drawdowns: While a few outliers exhibit extraordinarily high CAGRs, they also endure substantial drawdowns, indicating a high-risk, high-reward approach.
• Stable performers cluster around 10%-30% CAGR: The majority of programs fall within this zone, with moderate drawdowns between 10% and 30%, reinforcing the importance of balancing return expectations with risk constraints.
• Notable outliers:
  • Some programs achieve 80%-100% CAGR with relatively controlled drawdowns, indicating exceptional performance in recent market conditions.
  • Others exhibit extremely high drawdowns exceeding 50%, suggesting riskier, more volatile approaches.

What This Means for Investors & Traders

This scatterplot underscores that not all trend-following strategies are created equal.

• Some programs prioritize raw return maximization at the cost of higher risk, while others opt for more stable compounding through disciplined drawdown control.
• A balance between CAGR and max drawdown is crucial for long-term capital preservation and compounding success.

By identifying the most efficient return-to-risk programs, investors can refine portfolio allocations and select managers who align with their preferred risk tolerance and performance objectives.

Conclusion

The January 2025 edition of Rising Stars and Trend Titans highlights another impressive month for trend-following programs, showcasing both established titans and emerging leaders in the space. These results reinforce the resilience, adaptability, and innovation that define the systematic trading landscape.

A special recognition goes to East Coast Capital Management’s ECCM STF, which once again leads the pack with an exceptional 5-Year MAR of 2.59, underscoring its ability to deliver strong returns while maintaining disciplined risk control. Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program also continues to impress, topping the 5-Year CAGR leaderboard with a remarkable 57.92%, reflecting its aggressive but effective approach to capturing global trends.

Bowmoor Capital’s Global Alpha Fund continues to stand out, achieving a 5-Year CAGR of 24.74% and a MAR of 1.79, striking a balance between high returns and efficient drawdown management. Capital Fund Management’s IS Trends Fund and Bastiat Capital’s Divergence Program further reinforced their consistency and risk-adjusted strength, solidifying their positions among the industry’s top systematic managers.

The broader trend-following industry remained resilient, with most programs delivering stable, benchmark-aligned performance, while top managers continued to set new standards in risk-adjusted efficiency. This dispersion highlights the diversity of approaches within systematic trading, as well as the importance of aligning strategy selection with long-term market adaptability.

As we begin 2025, Rising Stars and Trend Titans continues to celebrate the excellence and innovation in systematic trend following, recognizing the managers who are shaping the future of the space. Congratulations to this month’s standout performers!