Introduction

The world of systematic trend following continues to evolve, where data-driven discipline meets dynamic adaptation. Rising Stars and Trend Titans is your monthly lens into this space — spotlighting standout performers across the spectrum of systematic trend-following strategies.

For March 2025, we analyse the performance of 84 globally diversified programs, each with a verified track record of at least five years. This month’s edition continues our commitment to highlighting both the proven excellence of industry veterans and the emerging talent carving out a name in the trend-following world.

While recent months have tested the resilience of many strategies, March’s results reveal a compelling mosaic of responses — some programs struggling amid choppy reversals, while others showcased sharp adaptability and captured nascent trends with precision. As always, this report provides not just a scoreboard, but a narrative — helping allocators and enthusiasts alike understand how systematic managers are navigating a complex, ever-shifting global landscape.

Let’s dive into the signals, surprises, and standout performers of March 2025.

Criteria for Inclusion

The “Rising Stars and Trend Titans” blog evaluates globally diversified systematic trend-following programs that meet specific criteria to ensure consistency, reliability, and relevance. Here’s what makes a program eligible for inclusion:

1. Validated Track Record:
   Only programs with a minimum of five years of performance history are considered. This ensures that the strategies have been tested across varying market conditions and are not short-term anomalies.
2. Global Diversification:
   Programs must demonstrate diversification across multiple asset classes, including equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies. This ensures their ability to capture trends across a wide spectrum of markets.
3. Systematic Approach:
   All included programs must follow a systematic, rules-based approach to trend following, eliminating discretionary bias and focusing on process-driven decision-making.
4. Performance Reporting:
   Programs must provide consistent, validated monthly performance data. The data is drawn from the widely respected Nilsson Hedge Database, ensuring accuracy and credibility.
5. Program Scope:
   While established players are naturally included, we also feature rising stars who may have shorter overall histories but have achieved standout results within the five-year threshold. This focus ensures a balanced view of the established and emerging talent in the industry.

For a full listing of the programs featured in this month’s report, Database List March 2025.

Benchmark Performance Overview

March 2025 marked a modest recovery for systematic trend followers, with the benchmark tracking 84 globally diversified programs rising by +1.49%. This rebound followed a period of challenging returns, offering a timely reminder of the resilience that systematic strategies can exhibit during transitional market phases.

Over the trailing 12 months, the benchmark has returned +9.26%, reversing some of the earlier drawdowns seen in late 2024. On a longer-term basis, the 5-year cumulative return now stands at 30.07%, translating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.40%. These figures reflect the continued ability of systematic trend-following to generate positive returns across market cycles — even as short-term fluctuations test conviction.

The benchmark’s maximum drawdown over the five-year period held steady at 11.07%, with a Managed Account Ratio (MAR) of 0.49, pointing to a balanced return-to-risk profile. Notably, the skew remains positive at 0.14, reinforcing the asymmetric payoff structure trend followers often enjoy — where gains, when they come, can significantly outweigh losses.

As always, the benchmark serves as a key reference point for assessing individual manager performance. It highlights not just the average outcome, but the range of strategic responses within the systematic space — and the importance of process, patience, and persistence in capturing the long arc of trend-following success.

Top 10 List: Month Performance for March 2025

March brought a welcome shift for several trend-following managers, with a number of standout programs posting strong gains despite a year that continues to challenge trend consistency. The top 10 performers for March handily outpaced the benchmark’s +1.49%, showcasing the diversity of strategies and their capacity to respond to evolving market conditions.

Bowmoor Capital took a commanding lead, with both its Global Alpha Fund and Global Alpha Fund – Share Class D returning an impressive +7.33% for the month. These twin strategies continue to demonstrate high-conviction trend capture, supported by 5-year CAGRs of 24.57% and 22.45%, respectively, and strong MARs of 1.78 and 1.61.

Mulvaney Capital Management returned to the spotlight with its Global Diversified Program, delivering +5.15% in March. This long-standing high-volatility strategy maintains a remarkable 5-year CAGR of 48.97% and cumulative gain of over 633%, though with a correspondingly high maximum drawdown of 39.21%.

Quest Partners placed three strategies in the top 10:

• AlphaQuest Original posted +3.65%, continuing a steady upward trajectory.
• AlphaQuest Short Bias (AQSB) returned +3.63%, an unusually strong month for a short-biased approach.
• AlphaQuest (ML Capital) added +1.80%, showing ongoing persistence even after muted long-term growth.

AQR Capital Management also delivered strong results through multiple vehicles:

• Its Managed Futures HV Strategy returned +2.36%, reinforcing its high-volatility profile.
• The UCITS version of the strategy delivered +1.74%, slightly more muted but consistent.

Other notable performers include:

• Campbell & Company’s Managed Futures, up +2.23%, with solid long-term metrics including a MAR of 1.24 and CAGR of 10.01% over five years.
• EMC Capital Advisors’ Balance Program, which returned +1.20%, rounding out the top 10 with a low correlation profile and conservative drawdown metrics.

These results highlight the continued breadth within the trend-following universe. From aggressive compounding to risk-managed resilience, the top performers this month reflect a range of strategic styles — each navigating the March environment with distinctive strengths.

Monthly Dispersion Summary: March 2025

 

March 2025 featured a notably wide dispersion of returns among the 84 reporting systematic trend-following programs, reflecting a mixed environment where strategy differentiation played a key role in performance outcomes.

• Max Return: +7.33%
• Min Return: -13.23%
• Mean Return: +1.49%
• Median Return: +1.45%
• Standard Deviation: 3.10%
• Total Programs Reporting: 84

The distribution of returns was positively skewed, with most managers clustering tightly between -2% and +4%. A small group of underperformers experienced drawdowns exceeding -10%, while a handful of outperformers surpassed +5%, led by Bowmoor Capital’s +7.33% result. The slight gap between the mean and median indicates a relatively balanced month, albeit with a few significant outliers on both ends.

On a longer-term basis, the chart tracking monthly standard deviations shows that volatility in March remained within the mid-range of post-2020 norms. While well below the extremes of early 2024, dispersion continues to reflect the uneven nature of trend development across asset classes. At 3.10%, March’s standard deviation aligns with a broader environment of rotational behaviour — where opportunities persist but require precision in execution and adaptability in models.

The current environment reinforces the importance of diversification — not just across markets, but across strategy types. Programs able to lean into emerging trends while avoiding whipsaws maintained their edge, while others struggled amid fragmented signals. Once again, dispersion analysis proves essential in assessing the robustness and agility of systematic approaches.

Top 10 List: 5-Year CAGR

 

The long-term lens continues to spotlight the strategies that thrive not only in isolated moments, but across varied and volatile market regimes. The top 10 performers by 5-year CAGR for March 2025 exemplify that consistency and adaptability remain the cornerstones of sustainable trend-following success.

Mulvaney Capital Management holds the crown yet again, with its Global Diversified Program posting a staggering 5-year CAGR of 48.97% — supported by a cumulative return of over 633%. While the strategy carries high volatility (Max DD: 39.21%), its MAR of 1.25 shows that this is no reckless ride — it’s a high-octane engine with staying power.

Bowmoor Capital places two entries in the top three, with both its Global Alpha Fund and Share Class D version delivering 5-year CAGRs of 24.57% and 22.45%, respectively. These programs continue to offer strong compounding potential with controlled drawdowns (13.81% and 13.92%) and solid MARs of 1.78 and 1.61.

Also standing out:

• East Coast Capital Management’s ECCM STF continues its streak of elite risk-adjusted performance with a 5-year CAGR of 15.52% and an industry-leading MAR of 2.51 — a model of balance between return and discipline.
• Capital Fund Management’s IS Trends Fund maintains strong positioning with a 12.82% CAGR and impressive MAR of 2.11.
• EMC Capital Advisors’ Millburn Hedge Strategy Fund delivers a healthy CAGR of 9.77%, continuing its steady climb up the rankings.

Other notable long-term performers include:

• Standpoint’s Multi-Asset Fund (CAGR: 9.70%, MAR: 1.56) – continuing to balance multi-asset exposures with stable compounding.
• Sterling Partners’ SPQI Select (CAGR: 9.23%, MAR: 1.44) – a relative newcomer establishing credibility through consistent execution.
• AQR’s Managed Futures HV Strategy, with a respectable CAGR of 11.06%, though balanced by a larger drawdown profile.
• MS Capital Management Limited’s Global Diversified, a veteran strategy with a CAGR of 6.64%, and one of the longest track records in the space.

These results once again affirm that top-tier systematic trend-following is about more than chasing returns — it’s about building resilient systems, weathering regime shifts, and letting compounding do the heavy lifting over time.

Dispersion of 5-Year CAGR: Summary

 

The 5-year CAGR distribution across the 84 reporting systematic trend-following programs paints a vivid picture of performance diversity — revealing just how differentiated the long-term outcomes can be within this universe.

• Max CAGR: +48.97%
• Min CAGR: -12.12%
• Mean CAGR: 5.10%
• Median CAGR: 5.00%
• Standard Deviation: 7.21%
• Total Reporting: 84 programs

The return distribution is right-skewed, with most managers clustered between 0% and 10% CAGR, but a handful pushing well above that range — led by Mulvaney Capital Management’s standout result. The tail on the left-hand side includes a few programs that posted negative long-term returns, underscoring the reality that not all systematic strategies achieve durable compounding.

What stands out is the tight central cluster around the 4%–8% range, which aligns closely with the benchmark’s own CAGR of 5.40%. This reinforces the consistency of returns across a majority of managers, despite variations in volatility, leverage, and model design.

Key Observations:

• Over 80% of programs posted positive 5-year CAGRs — a strong endorsement of the robustness of trend-following principles over extended periods.
• A small subset of underperformers highlights risks associated with poor model construction, inadequate diversification, or overfitting to past regimes.
• The standard deviation of 7.21% reflects a healthy spread across strategies, offering allocators an opportunity to blend styles for more balanced exposure.

Ultimately, this dispersion reminds us that systematic trend-following is not a monolith — success hinges on execution quality, adaptive frameworks, and the discipline to ride out inevitable market noise. For investors and allocators, these insights reinforce the importance of rigorous due diligence and multi-manager diversification when deploying capital in this space.

Top 10 List: 5-Year MAR Leaders

 

In the world of systematic trend following, risk-adjusted returns often tell a deeper story than raw performance alone. The MAR ratio (CAGR divided by Max Drawdown) highlights the managers who not only grow capital but do so with resilience and discipline — the true compounders.

Leading the field is East Coast Capital Management’s ECCM STF, once again securing the top spot with a 5-year MAR of 2.46. With a CAGR of 15.25% and a maximum drawdown of just 6.20%, this program stands as a masterclass in trend-following precision and capital preservation.

Close behind is Capital Fund Management’s IS Trends Fund, delivering a MAR of 2.11 on the back of a 12.82% CAGR and a low drawdown of 6.08%. This blend of steady growth and robust risk control places it among the most consistent performers in the space.

Bowmoor Capital features prominently with both its Global Alpha Fund and Share Class D, posting MARs of 1.78 and 1.61, respectively. These strategies continue to combine double-digit CAGR with drawdown discipline, reinforcing their place as industry titans.

Standpoint’s Multi-Asset Fund comes in with a MAR of 1.56, showcasing a strong risk-return profile through turbulent regimes.

Additional top MAR performers include:

• Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program (MAR: 1.25) — aggressive in return, yet still maintaining relative efficiency despite a 39.21% drawdown.
• Campbell & Company’s Managed Futures (MAR: 1.24) — a veteran program with long-term consistency.
• Catalyst Capital Advisors’ Milburn Hedge Strategy Fund (MAR: 1.17) — balancing risk with near double-digit CAGR.
• MS Capital Management Limited’s Global Diversified (MAR: 1.36) — an enduring performer with one of the longest continuous track records.
• AQR’s Managed Futures (MAR: 0.84) — rounding out the top 10 with a strong legacy of systematic execution.

CAGR vs. Drawdown Analysis

The accompanying scatterplot reveals a spectrum of risk-return tradeoffs:

• Mulvaney Capital Management occupies the high-growth, high-volatility quadrant, with unmatched CAGR but the steepest drawdown in the group.
• ECCM STF and IS Trends Fund sit in the optimal zone — combining high CAGR with minimal drawdown, reflecting elite efficiency.
• Other top performers — including Bowmoor Capital and Standpoint — cluster in the moderate-to-high CAGR range with controlled risk, signaling balanced strategies that maintain both offense and defense.

This distribution underscores the importance of MAR as a lens for durability. While outsized returns grab headlines, it’s the ability to navigate downturns and emerge stronger that defines enduring success in trend following.

CAGR% vs Max DD% Scatterplot: All Programs

 

This full-universe scatterplot presents a powerful visual snapshot of how all 84 systematic trend-following programs stack up in terms of 5-year CAGR versus maximum drawdown — revealing the diverse landscape of long-term performance profiles.

The chart underscores a fundamental truth: return and risk are inseparable partners in the architecture of systematic strategies. A few key takeaways:

Key Observations

• Wide Performance Dispersion: CAGR values range from below -10% to nearly +50%, while drawdowns span from under 10% to above 50%. This breadth reflects both the innovation and variability across model construction, market focus, and risk appetite.
• Concentrated Core Cluster: The majority of programs form a dense cluster between 5%–12% CAGR and 10%–25% drawdown, suggesting a central tendency of moderate growth with manageable risk. This zone represents the benchmark’s core characteristics and is where many institutional-grade strategies operate.
• High-Growth Outliers: To the far right, Mulvaney Capital Management once again stands apart — achieving nearly 49% CAGR with a drawdown around 39%, emphasizing its aggressive return profile in contrast to more balanced strategies.
• High-Risk Laggards: A small number of programs in the upper-left quadrant show large drawdowns with negative or minimal returns, raising questions around risk management, adaptability, or overfitting.

What This Means for Investors

The takeaway is clear: headline returns don’t tell the whole story. The value lies in how those returns are achieved — and at what cost.

• Programs with efficient risk-adjusted returns — especially those with high MAR ratios — tend to occupy the sweet spot of moderate-to-high CAGR and controlled drawdowns.
• The dispersion enables true diversification — giving allocators the ability to blend aggressive trend amplifiers with risk-aware compounders in a multi-manager portfolio.
• This plot reinforces that systematic trend following is not a monolith. Each strategy has its own DNA — and understanding the trade-offs is key to informed allocation decisions.

In short, the scatterplot is more than a chart — it’s a map of the trend-following terrain, revealing where each program stands on the path from risk to reward.

Conclusion

March 2025 delivered a welcome reprieve for many trend-following managers, with the benchmark rising +1.49% and dispersion tightening after a volatile start to the year. But beneath the surface, the month revealed more than just recovery — it revealed contrast, conviction, and the growing divide between reactive systems and those built for enduring adaptability.

East Coast Capital Management’s ECCM STF once again demonstrated why risk-adjusted excellence is the true benchmark, topping the 5-year MAR rankings with 2.46. Its combination of high CAGR and low drawdown sets the gold standard for capital efficiency in systematic trading.

Meanwhile, Mulvaney Capital Management continues to chart its own course — far out on the right edge of the CAGR vs. Drawdown map — with a 5-year CAGR nearing 49%, a bold illustration of what’s possible when high-conviction trend capture meets disciplined execution.

Other leaders — including Bowmoor Capital, Capital Fund Management, Standpoint, and Campbell & Company — reinforce the truth that there’s more than one path to excellence. Some prioritize raw return, others risk mitigation, and a few, like IS Trends Fund, strike an enviable balance between the two.

This month’s data also reveals an enduring lesson: systematic trend following is a story told over time, not in moments. The wide dispersion in 5-year CAGR and MAR ratios shows that long-term success is less about chasing market noise, and more about building systems that thrive through regime shifts, volatility clusters, and structural transitions.

As we progress into Q2, one thing is clear — the managers featured in this report aren’t just riding trends. They’re interpreting them, adapting to them, and, at times, defining the future shape of systematic investing itself.

Congratulations to this month’s Rising Stars and seasoned Titans — and to all the programs that continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible in trend following.