The Hedgehog versus the Fox
“The fox knows many things, the hedgehog knows only one thing” – Isiah Berlin
Beware our penchant of deriving cause and effect from randomness. As a trader and investor it is wise to start with the assumption of randomness as it encourages us to test all assumptions that might bias us. If you can detect that bias, then the potential for arbitrage in those systems that arise from human participation may reveal themselves to enable us to derive an indefatigable edge that exploits the ‘black and white’ of human behaviour.