This week, trend-followers faced another turbulent period as market volatility surged, driven by escalating trade tensions and shifting macroeconomic conditions. While bearish trends gained traction in select markets, reversals and fragmentation continued to challenge trend-following strategies.

The TTU Trend Barometer rose to 45% (up from 32% last week), signaling a more neutral environment but still short of optimal trend-friendly conditions.

SG Trend Index Performance

• MTD: -0.34% (vs. -2.60% last week)
• YTD: -3.37% (vs. -2.46% last week)

Key Market Highlights:

• Natural Gas (+14.79%) – Cold weather, LNG exports, and supply constraints drove a sharp rebound.
• Silver (+4.51%) – Safe-haven demand and industrial use contributed to sustained bullish momentum.
• Palladium (+4.95%) – Price recovery fueled by supply concerns and auto industry fluctuations.
• Cocoa (-9.40%) – A sharp retracement from highs, testing long-term trend-followers.
• Heating Oil (-4.44%) – Seasonal demand decline and rising inventories pressured prices.
• VIX (+16.04%) – Volatility spiked as market uncertainty intensified amid global trade concerns.

Navigating Market Trends
With risk-off sentiment dominating markets, trend-followers adapted to heightened volatility while identifying emerging trends. The recent rise in the Trend Barometer suggests improving conditions, but caution remains essential as trend-following strategies continue to navigate unpredictable market movements.

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