This week, trend-followers battled rising turbulence as the VIX snapped back +9.44%, equity markets dropped, and soft commodities saw major downside moves. The TTU Trend Barometer fell to 30% (from 32% last week), signaling further weakening in trend conditions across asset classes.

SG Trend Index Performance:

• MTD: -1.20% (vs. -0.52% last week)
• YTD: -4.20% (vs. -3.55% last week)

Key Market Highlights:

• VIX Futures (+9.44%) – Sentiment shifted rapidly amid inflation jitters and tariff talk.
• Soybean Oil (+7.59%) – Tight Argentine farmer sales and biodiesel substitution drove gains.
• Canola (+7.28%) – Chinese tariffs sparked volatility in the oilseed space.
• Silver (+3.98%) – Safe-haven flows and industrial demand powered the breakout.
• Orange Juice (-15.28%) – A fast and furious bear trend gained momentum.
• Coffee (-3.01%) – Rain forecasts in Brazil and profit-taking weighed on prices.

Trend-Following Insights:
This week saw a market wrestling with macro uncertainty, geopolitical pressure, and rapid sentiment shifts. While metals and select commodities offer trend continuity, softs and grains showed severe whipsaws, testing the durability of trend models.

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Stay alert. Stay mechanical. Stay in the flow.