January 2026 delivered what trend followers had been patiently waiting for. After a 2025 defined by selective conditions and modest gains, the new year opened with all three major trend-following benchmarks posting returns exceeding four percent, the TTU Trend Barometer surging into favourable territory, and the breadth of opportunity expanding meaningfully for the first time in over a year.
The numbers speak for themselves. The BTOP50 Index led with a 5.03 percent advance, followed by the SG Trend Index at 4.71 percent and the TTU Trend Following Index at 4.54 percent. Each of these represents the strongest single-month result from the respective benchmarks in some time, and the fact that the broader BTOP50 led the field suggests participation extended well beyond pure trend-following strategies into the wider managed futures space.
But the headline returns only tell part of the story. The most significant development was the TTU Trend Barometer’s leap from 36 to 68, moving decisively into the favourable zone above 55. Unlike December, where strong returns coincided with narrowing trend breadth, January’s gains were underpinned by a genuine broadening of directional persistence across global futures markets. Returns and conditions moved in the same direction, a combination that has historically preceded periods of sustained trend-following outperformance.
The Serenity Top 5 Selection Method was the standout performer, delivering a 7.46 percent gain for the month and bringing its trailing twelve-month return to 6.89 percent. The TTU TF Index also expanded to 47 active programs, up from 43 at year-end, reflecting the growing depth of the systematic trend-following universe.
Whether January marks the beginning of a durable favourable regime or an isolated burst of opportunity remains to be seen. But the signals are more encouraging than they have been in some time, and the patience and process that defined 2025 have been rewarded.
The full report, including detailed index analysis, Trend Barometer commentary, Top 10 rankings, and the Serenity Top 5 performance breakdown, is available now on Top Traders Unplugged.
Read the full January 2026 Trend Following Performance Report here.
Want the theoretical foundation for why trend following works?
The Fractals of Finance: Determinism, Adaptation and the Geometry of Markets
The book explores the full architecture of feedback, fat tails, and fractal structure in financial markets, and what it means for how we trade, invest, and understand risk.
Available now on Amazon in paperback, hardcover, and Kindle.
Want a practical field manual for trading trends and capturing outliers?
The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide: A Field Manual for Hunting Outliers adapts the timeless principles of the original Turtle traders into a systematic, rules-based approach for modern markets. Co-authored with Adam Havryliv.
Available now on Amazon in paperback, hardcover, and Kindle.