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Introduction Systematic trend following performance in August 2026 returned to positive territory. The benchmark gained +3.02 percent, reversing the back-to-back losses of June and July and lifting the benchmark equity curve to a new high on its five-year VAMI. The...
The Trends That Finally Held July gave trend followers plenty of movement, but little that lasted. August changed the result. After two consecutive losing months, all seven indexes finished positive. Classic Trend led at +5.3%, followed closely by IASG TF...
The Formula That Ate the Market How Black, Scholes and Merton transformed option pricing, and what happened when an elegant model met a market that could move beneath it. Chicago, 1973. A new exchange opens for business with standardised options...
Listen to the full episode: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan Niels and I began this conversation in a crowded bar in Santa Fe. Not literally. The bar was El Farol, famous locally for its...
More markets rose. Fewer trends persisted. This was a week in which the performance board and the trend environment told very different stories. Eighteen of 49 contracts finished higher, up from just 14 a week ago. Yet the TTU Trend...
The Actuary and the Abyss How life assurance learned to measure uncertainty across a population, and what finance misunderstood when it carried the method into markets. London, 1762. A new society begins offering life assurance on a principle that now...
The Coffee House and the Bell Curve How Lloyd’s coffee house turned information into an insurance market, and how a beautiful mathematical idea changed the way finance understood risk. London, 1688. Tower Street runs east from the Monument towards the...
The Sea Does Not Negotiate How the merchants of Venice developed an architecture of survival, and what their response to uncertainty can still teach finance today. Imagine Venice around 1250. A notary’s office occupies the first floor of a building...
Fourteen markets rose. Trend strength and returns reached the top of the sequence. This was a week in which far fewer markets rose and the money improved anyway. The TTU Trend Barometer climbed from 55 percent to 59 percent, entering...
The Map That Ate the Territory Every generation develops a new certainty about risk, and each new certainty eventually breaks on the same rock. Stockholm, December 1997. Myron Scholes and Robert Merton receive the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences...