“The Whipsaw Resumes. Energy Spikes, Metals Unwind, and the Barometer Holds Strong at 50“
Trend Following Weekly Report
This was the week the whipsaw resumed.
Market pricing reflected a renewed risk premium around the Strait of Hormuz, with reports indicating the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports tightened and diplomatic talks stalled. The geopolitical risk premium that had been priced out of oil the prior week was priced straight back in. The U.S. dollar firmed, Treasury yields rose, and the precious metals trade unwound. Crude Oil Brent led all 49 assets at 16.54 percent. Orange Juice fell 15.16 percent. Energy averaged 9.45 percent and Metals averaged minus 4.36 percent, the largest week-on-week sector reversal in the current comparison. The TTU Trend Barometer eased from 55 percent to 50 percent, but the overall trend strength reading remained classified as Strong. The 10-day rate of change reads Falling Weakly, the same as last week.
This was not a week defined by whether markets rose or fell. It was a week defined by whether the moves were persistent enough to be captured. That distinction matters for systematic managers. Energy delivered the clearest upside directional impulse. Metals delivered the clearest downside directional impulse. Both are exploitable for systems aligned with the move. Both can detract from systems caught on the opposite side or in a whipsaw. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.
This is the key distinction for the week: breadth weakened, but existing positioning still generated positive returns. The barometer eased five points as two large sectors reversed in opposite directions, yet the SG Trend Index advanced to 1.54 percent MTD and 8.73 percent YTD, both fresh 2026 highs. The classification has held through one of the most disruptive cross-sector weeks in the current cycle.
The cleaner directional patterns now sit in places that were not the focus a week ago: short Orange Juice, the synchronised upward turn across Sugar, Cocoa, and Coffee, and short Natural Gas. Energy itself remains directionally unstable on a two-week view. Metals are tested. One question defines the week ahead: does diplomacy restart, or does the Hormuz standoff escalate further.
TTU Trend Barometer: 50 percent, down from 55 (Falling Weakly, classification Strong) SG Trend Index: 1.54 percent MTD | 8.73 percent YTD
Top Movers (Up): Crude Oil Brent, Gasoline RBOB, Heating Oil, Crude Oil WTI
Top Movers (Down): Orange Juice, Silver, Palladium, Platinum
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