This Week in Trend: 26 June 2026

The week turned lower across most of the board, with the heaviest moves in energy and the metals while the long equity uptrend paused near record territory. The petroleum complex extended its breakdown into a third week, Crude Oil Brent down 10.65 percent and Crude Oil WTI down 8.73 percent, and Metals was the weakest sector of all, Silver off 10.63 percent as the precious complex deepened its pullback. The equity indices gave back ground after the prior week’s broad advance, averaging a loss of 1.63 percent as the Nasdaq 100 and the Nikkei 225 pulled back hardest from records. Against the weakness, Cocoa surged 20.25 percent for a second strong week and Rough Rice rose 8.32 percent, the two largest gains on the board. Contract-level breadth stayed negative, 19 of 49 contracts higher against 30 lower, with none unchanged.

The TTU Trend Barometer firmed to 55 percent, up from 45 percent the week before, reaching the line where Neutral gives way to a favourable environment and lifting the overall trend strength classification to Strong, with the 10-day rate of change reading Rising Weakly. Yet the SG Trend Index slipped, giving back roughly half a percentage point on the year to finish at positive 9.03 percent year to date, with the June month to date at negative 1.25 percent. That gap is the story of the week: trend strength rose while trend-follower performance fell. The barometer measures how strongly and persistently markets are trending in either direction, not how many close higher, so a week of sharp, persistent declines in energy, the metals, the equity indices and crypto can lift it even as most markets fall and a long-biased book gives back ground.

The chart picture supports a risk-off read. Crude has unwound its spring spike in full and is pressing toward the lower part of its range, a downtrend now in its third week. The precious metals are deepening a decline from their winter and spring highs, Silver the steepest, while Copper holds near the top of its range as the exception. The equity indices remain in their multi-month uptrend and still sit near records, so this week reads as a pause rather than a turn, though the split within the sector is worth noting, the Nasdaq 100 and the Nikkei 225 giving back the most while the Dow and the small caps firmed. The few bright spots were largely counter-trend: Cocoa’s surge recovers part of a long decline, now in its second week and beginning to look like more than a bounce, and Rough Rice jumped off its lows.

For a trend follower the distinction between the week’s gains and its losses matters more than the breadth count. The largest gains were counter-trend bounces, the moves most likely to fade, while the largest losses ran with trends already in place or building, the moves more likely to continue. The clearest, most persistent trends now sit on the downside, in energy and the metals, with the equity pause the open question. The week offered more trend strength than trend-follower reward, the new strength real but pointing in directions a long-biased book was not yet carrying. The question for the week ahead is whether the risk-off turn hardens into a sustained trend as the indices roll over and energy and the metals extend lower, or whether the long equity uptrend reasserts itself and leaves this week as a brief pause within it.

Top Movers (Up) Cocoa (Soft Commodities), up 20.25 percent Rough Rice (Grains), up 8.32 percent VIX (Volatility), up 3.06 percent Sugar (Soft Commodities), up 2.69 percent

Top Movers (Down) Crude Oil Brent (Energy), down 10.65 percent Silver (Metals), down 10.63 percent Crude Oil WTI (Energy), down 8.73 percent Orange Juice (Soft Commodities), down 6.74 percent

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