This Week in Trend: 10 July 2026

Leadership rotated decisively this week as the commodity sectors took control while many of the previous week’s leaders reversed. Grains led the board, up 5.25 percent with all eight contracts higher, Wheat gaining 6.75 percent and Oats 6.42 percent. Energy firmed 2.93 percent as Heating Oil ran 11.66 percent and the crude band turned back up, while Soft Commodities held near the top at 3.73 percent, carried by Cocoa’s 20.43 percent surge, the largest single move on the board. Against that, the financial sectors softened: the Equity Indices eased 0.32 percent as the European indices fell and the US large caps firmed, Bonds gave back 0.53 percent, and the Meats fell 1.03 percent. Contract-level breadth stayed positive, with 31 of the 49 contracts finishing higher.

Even with that positive breadth, the TTU Trend Barometer fell 25 points to 39 percent, moving from Very Strong all the way to Moderately Weak as the reading dropped through Neutral and below the 40 percent floor into a cold environment, the 10-day rate of change now reading Falling Rapidly. The barometer measures the share of markets generating medium-to-strong trends, not this week’s direction, so a board where most contracts closed higher can still show falling trend strength when those higher closes come from reversals rather than continuations. Orange Juice swung from a 20.32 percent surge to a 16.72 percent fall, Silver handed back its bounce, and the European equity indices rolled from firm to sharply lower, a set of turns that broke the persistence the barometer tracks.

The lesson sat in what happened next. The SG Trend Index still edged higher, adding roughly 0.30 of a point to 8.62 percent year to date, because the trends that survived were the ones already held. Coffee extended its climb to 10.97 percent, Heating Oil ran further, Natural Gas continued lower, and the grains advanced as a block, continuations that paid books positioned along them. Portfolio returns depend less on how many markets trend than on whether the trends already in place persist, and this week the commodity trends that persisted outweighed the reversals elsewhere. That is why trend strength and trend-follower reward moved in opposite directions, the exact inverse of last week.

The week leaves an open question rather than a forecast. Positive breadth alone was not enough to hold the barometer up, because leadership turned over too quickly for trends to establish. Whether the rotation into the commodity sectors hardens into durable trends, as the grains and Energy extend and Cocoa and Coffee run, or whether leadership keeps changing hands week by week, is what the coming weeks will decide. For trend followers, the signal to watch is persistence, not direction.

Top Movers (Up): Cocoa (Soft Commodities) plus 20.43 percent Heating Oil (Energy) plus 11.66 percent Coffee (Soft Commodities) plus 10.97 percent Wheat (Grains) plus 6.75 percent Oats (Grains) plus 6.42 percent

Top Movers (Down): Orange Juice (Soft Commodities) minus 16.72 percent Natural Gas (Energy) minus 8.01 percent VIX (Volatility Index) minus 5.29 percent DAX (Equity Indices) minus 2.88 percent Euro Stoxx 50 (Equity Indices) minus 2.34 percent

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