Fourteen markets rose. Trend strength and returns reached the top of the sequence.
This was a week in which far fewer markets rose and the money improved anyway.
The TTU Trend Barometer climbed from 55 percent to 59 percent, entering the favourable band for the first time in the period we have tracked. It is also the highest reading in the current sequence.
The five-week progression now reads 39, 50, 55, 55 and 59. The Barometer has gained 29 points from its late-July low of 30 percent and now stands seven points above the reading that preceded that collapse.
But the number of markets finishing higher told a very different story.
Only 14 of 49 contracts rose, down from 24 a week ago, while 35 finished lower. That is the narrowest upside breadth in the sequence.
The average move across the board barely changed, easing from 2.24 percent to 2.16 percent. The amount of movement remained almost the same. Its direction and concentration changed completely.
This distinction matters.
The Barometer does not count how many markets are rising. It measures how many are producing medium to strong trends. Those trends can travel in either direction.
And this week, many of them travelled down.
Equity Indices fell 1.47 percent, with all seven contracts lower. Metals lost 2.62 percent, with all five declining for the first time in the period tracked. Bonds fell 1.13 percent, with every maturity lower for a second consecutive week and the declines again increasing along the curve.
That is sixteen contracts across three sectors moving as coherent blocs.
A count of markets higher is not a count of markets trending. It was never a count of markets paying.
Energy supplied the other side of the week.
The sector gained 4.02 percent, led by the petroleum complex. WTI surged 9.37 percent, Heating Oil rose 9.23 percent and Brent gained 8.65 percent, the three largest advances on the board. Gasoline RBOB added 2.88 percent.
The move was narrower than the previous week, when all six Energy contracts rose. Natural Gas fell 4.84 percent and Ethanol declined 1.20 percent. But the petroleum contracts that persisted travelled far enough to carry the sector.
WTI is now pressing the 100 level, while Brent has moved above 104.
Meats also advanced, gaining 2.03 percent. Feeder Cattle rose 3.86 percent and Live Cattle added 3.16 percent. Both remain inside larger declines from their spring highs, but the cost of holding short exposure increased for a second week.
Elsewhere, Orange Juice lost 6.98 percent, surrendering its entire rebound from the previous week and returning to the lows of a decline that has run through most of the year. Palladium fell 5.70 percent, Cocoa declined 3.67 percent and Bitcoin lost 3.40 percent.
The VIX rose 2.07 percent, ending seven consecutive weekly declines, while all seven Equity Indices moved lower. The conventional relationship between falling equities and rising implied volatility returned, although the VIX remains near the lower end of its range for the year.
Grains went almost nowhere for a second week. The sector slipped just 0.03 percent, with seven of eight contracts still near their recent highs. Currencies also lacked a common factor, falling 0.14 percent while the US Dollar Index itself barely moved.
The SG Trend Index confirms what the Barometer was seeing.
It rose to +14.18 percent year to date, up from +11.73 percent, with September month to date reaching +2.79 percent. The 2.45 percentage-point weekly improvement was the largest in the sequence we have tracked.
Two measures reached their highest readings together.
Trend strength rose to 59 percent. The SG Trend Index recorded its strongest weekly improvement. Yet the number of markets finishing higher fell by ten.
There is no contradiction.
Breadth measured how many markets rose. The Barometer measured how widely strong trends were distributed. The return figure measured what those trends paid.
This week, upside breadth narrowed while coherence increased.
Fourteen markets rose. Trend strength went up. Returns accelerated.
All three readings were right, and a great many of the trends that paid travelled down.
For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.
Top Movers (Up)
Crude Oil WTI (Energy) +9.37 percent
Heating Oil (Energy) +9.23 percent
Crude Oil Brent (Energy) +8.65 percent
Feeder Cattle (Meats) +3.86 percent
Live Cattle (Meats) +3.16 percent
Top Movers (Down)
Orange Juice (Soft Commodities) -6.98 percent
Palladium (Metals) -5.70 percent
Natural Gas (Energy) -4.84 percent
Cocoa (Soft Commodities) -3.67 percent
Bitcoin (Crypto) -3.40 percent
Richard Brennan writes on systematic trading, complex adaptive markets, and the philosophical foundations of trend following at atstradingsolutions.com. His books include The Fractals of Finance, Complex Adaptive Markets, Carved by Impossibility and The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide.
Want to explore why structure exists at all?
Carved by Impossibility: What Remains When Everything Else Is Eliminated
The book explores the architecture of constraint, emergence, and reality itself, and what it means for how we understand markets, life, and the universe.
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Want the theoretical foundation for why trend following works?
The Fractals of Finance: Determinism, Adaptation and the Geometry of Markets bridges complexity science with practical trading implementation. With a foreword by Jerry Parker, original Turtle Trader.
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Want a practical field manual for trading trends and capturing outliers?
The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide: A Field Manual for Hunting Outliers adapts the timeless principles of the original Turtle traders into a systematic, rules-based approach for modern markets. Co-authored with Adam Havryliv.
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