THIS WEEK IN TREND: 16th October 2026

This was a week in which several of the year’s leading advances gave ground. Fewer markets rose, the moves grew larger, and the trend environment weakened sharply.

Twenty-two of 49 futures contracts finished higher, down from 28 a week earlier. The TTU Trend Barometer fell 14 points from 50 percent to 36 percent, leaving the Neutral band and moving four points below the 40 percent boundary that marks a cold environment for trend following.

The five-week sequence now reads 45, 52, 52, 50 and 36. The 10-day rate of change turned to Falling Moderately. The Barometer is only six points above its late-July low of 30 percent and 23 points below the 59 percent reading recorded on 11 September.

Last week the performance board broadened even as trend strength slipped. This week breadth and trend strength fell together. The average absolute move rose from 1.69 percent to 2.49 percent, and the gap between the largest gain and loss widened sharply.

Equity Indices supplied the clearest example of interrupted advances. The sector fell 2.14 percent, led by the Nikkei 225 at -7.44 percent and Nasdaq 100 at -5.52 percent. The S&P 500 lost 1.98 percent and Russell 2000 fell 3.07 percent. These markets retreated from the upper parts of charts that still show advances, rather than extending established declines.

Grains also lost ground. The sector fell 1.77 percent, with seven of eight contracts lower. Oats dropped 5.47 percent, Soybeans 2.38 percent, Soybean Meal 2.32 percent and Canola 2.19 percent. Rough Rice was the exception, rising 2.24 percent to another chart high. The leading advances were interrupted, not necessarily broken.

Energy provided the counterweight. The sector gained 2.40 percent, led by WTI at +9.56 percent, Brent at +4.91 percent and Heating Oil at +3.39 percent. Ethanol reached a new high. The petroleum complex continued to advance even as other leading markets pulled back.

Metals fell 3.01 percent, the weakest sector average. Silver lost 6.13 percent, Platinum 3.56 percent and Palladium 2.76 percent. Those declines largely extended existing downward structures. Copper fell 1.77 percent, but its longer advance remained visible.

Soft Commodities gained 0.57 percent, though Coffee’s 6.50 percent rebound accounted for much of the result. Coffee rose inside a decline that remains intact. Sugar gained 2.96 percent and reached another high, while Orange Juice fell 4.91 percent, giving back part of the previous week’s rally.

Bonds rose 0.91 percent, with all four maturities higher for a second week. The 30 Year Bond gained 2.21 percent, but the declines running since winter remain visible across the curve. Currencies gained 0.24 percent as the US Dollar Index eased 0.36 percent from its high and EUR and CHF lifted from their lows.

The VIX rose 16.29 percent, the largest move anywhere on the board, while Bitcoin fell 1.50 percent. Five of the ten largest weekly moves ran with the underlying structures: WTI, Brent and Heating Oil extended advances, while Silver and Orange Juice extended declines. The Nikkei 225, Nasdaq 100, Oats and Coffee moved against their prevailing structures; the VIX rose within its range.

The SG Trend Index also gave ground. Its year-to-date return fell from +16.14 percent to +14.97 percent, a decline of 1.17 percentage points. October month to date turned negative at -0.73 percent. The index and Barometer declined together after two weeks in which they had moved in opposite directions.

That does not establish precisely which positions drove the index’s return. Without its individual holdings and contributions, attribution cannot be verified. But the outcome is consistent with a week in which reversals in established advances outweighed the gains available from trends that persisted.

For a trend-following portfolio, the distinction is straightforward. WTI rose 9.56 percent and rewarded exposure aligned with its advance. Coffee also rose, by 6.50 percent, but would have hurt a portfolio positioned with its decline. Silver fell 6.13 percent and rewarded short exposure; the Nasdaq 100 fell 5.52 percent and would have hurt a portfolio following its advance.

Rising markets are not automatically good markets for trend followers, and falling markets are not automatically bad ones. What matters is whether a market moves with the structure a portfolio was following.

Next week, the question is whether the Barometer stabilises around 36 percent or slips closer to its late-July low. Equity Indices and the leading Grains have pulled back, the petroleum complex remains firm, Bonds have bounced within declines, and the dollar has eased from its high.

For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

Top Movers (Up)

VIX (Volatility Index) +16.29 percent

Crude Oil WTI (Energy) +9.56 percent

Coffee (Soft Commodities) +6.50 percent

Crude Oil Brent (Energy) +4.91 percent

Heating Oil (Energy) +3.39 percent

Top Movers (Down)

Nikkei 225 (Equity Indices) -7.44 percent

Silver (Metals) -6.13 percent

Nasdaq 100 (Equity Indices) -5.52 percent

Oats (Grains) -5.47 percent

Orange Juice (Soft Commodities) -4.91 percent

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