THIS WEEK IN TREND: 23rd October 2026

This week, fewer futures markets rose, yet measured trend strength improved. Nineteen of 49 contracts finished higher, down from 22 a week earlier, while the TTU Trend Barometer climbed five percentage points from 36% to 41%. It crossed back above the 40% boundary into the Neutral environment.

That distinction matters. The Barometer measures the prevalence of medium-to-strong trends, whether upward or downward. It does not count how many markets rose in a particular week. Its five-week sequence now reads 52, 52, 50, 36 and 41. TTU describes overall trend strength as Neutral, although the 10-day rate of change still reads Falling Moderately.

The SG Trend Index told a different story. Its estimated year-to-date return fell from +14.97% to +14.31%, a second consecutive weekly decline of 0.66 percentage points. October month to date stood at -1.29%. More markets exhibiting trends did not translate into stronger portfolio returns that week.

Energy provided the clearest example of why averages can conceal the underlying opportunity. Brent Crude Oil gained 6.24%, the largest advance on the board, and WTI rose 4.29%. Both extended existing upward structures. Natural Gas, meanwhile, plunged 13.50%, the largest move in either direction, extending its decline. With Natural Gas included, the six-contract Energy sector averaged -0.81%; without it, the other five averaged approximately +1.73%.

Metals fell 4.27%, with all five contracts lower for a second week. Palladium lost 6.00%, Silver 5.86%, Platinum 4.33% and Gold 4.14%. The precious metals largely extended established declines, while Copper slipped 1.00% within a longer advance that remains visible. Gold returned to the area of its July low near 4,000, and Palladium reached another low.

Grains declined 2.66%, with seven of eight contracts lower. Oats fell 6.47%, Wheat 5.37%, Corn 3.85% and Soybean Meal 3.08%. Rough Rice was the exception, gaining 1.07% to another chart high. Oats, Soybean Meal and Canola have now pulled back for two weeks from their highs, interrupting advances without necessarily breaking them.

Equity Indices lost 0.81% for a third consecutive weekly decline. The Russell 2000 rose 1.79% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.34%, but European and Japanese indices led the losses. Euro Stoxx 50 fell 2.38%, the Nikkei 225 2.01% and the DAX 1.92%. The longer advances remain visible, although none of the seven indices reached a new high.

Bonds rose 0.73%, with all four maturities higher for a third week. The 30 Year Bond led at +1.75%. These gains remained rebounds within broader declines rather than confirmed reversals. Meats gained 0.43% as Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle rose within their declines, while Lean Hogs fell to another low.

Currencies gained 0.47%, helped by AUD (+1.37%), CAD (+1.02%) and NZD (+0.88%). The Dollar Index was little changed, while EUR and CHF slipped back toward their lows. Soft Commodities fell 1.14%, with Sugar retreating from its recent high and Lumber reaching another low. Bitcoin lost 1.33%, and the VIX fell 7.37%.

Of the ten largest weekly moves, five ran with the structures beneath them. Brent and WTI extended advances; Natural Gas, Palladium and Silver extended declines. Feeder Cattle, the 30 Year Bond, the Russell 2000 and Oats moved against their prevailing structures, while the VIX fell within its range.

The contrast between the Barometer and the SG Trend Index is not a contradiction. The Barometer tells us how widely trends are present. The index reflects returns earned by the trend-following portfolios it represents. The week’s index decline is consistent with interrupted advances in leading Grains, Copper and equity indices, together with counter-trend Bond gains, outweighing favourable movements elsewhere. Precise attribution cannot be established without the index’s underlying positions and contributions.

The week ahead turns on whether the Barometer can remain above 40% and whether its 10-day rate of change begins to improve. Rough Rice is still at a high while other leading Grains have retreated. Brent has reached the top of its range, Gold is testing its July low, and Bonds have risen three weeks without making higher highs. The question is not simply which markets rise next, but whether their underlying structures persist.

For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

Top Movers (Up)

Crude Oil Brent (Energy) +6.24%

Crude Oil WTI (Energy) +4.29%

Feeder Cattle (Meats) +2.09%

Russell 2000 (Equity Indices) +1.79%

30 Year Bond (Bonds) +1.75%

Top Movers (Down)

Natural Gas (Energy) -13.50%

VIX (Volatility Index) -7.37%

Oats (Grains) -6.47%

Palladium (Metals) -6.00%

Silver (Metals) -5.86%

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