“When momentum compounds, doubt fades. The portfolio does not question the trend, it simply remains aligned.”
About the ATS Classic Trend Benchmarking Portfolio
The ATS Classic Trend Portfolio is a purpose-built benchmarking model designed to illustrate how classic trend following systems are expected to behave across global futures markets. It is not a live trading program, but a reference framework that captures the essential mechanics of medium to long term trend logic: cut losses short, let profits run, and remain systematic.
The portfolio applies a 10-system ensemble operating fully out of sample across 68 highly liquid futures markets. It does not employ volatility targeting or dynamic position sizing, allowing performance to reflect the raw behaviour of diversified trend systems rather than the influence of risk overlays.
Commentary
February 2026 delivered another exceptional result for the ATS Classic Benchmark, advancing +9.34% for the month and lifting year-to-date performance to +21.83%. This marks the second consecutive month above nine percent, an extraordinary sequence that underscores the current richness of trend opportunity across global markets.
Gold once again led the portfolio, extending its dominant run with a +2.49% contribution as the contract pushed toward new highs near 5700. The precious metal’s persistence continues to define the structural character of 2026. But February’s story extended well beyond metals. Equities emerged as a significant source of returns, with the Nikkei 225 delivering one of the month’s standout performances as Japanese markets surged higher.
Energy marked a notable turnaround, contributing +1.19% after months of structural weakness. Natural gas, which had been a persistent detractor, finally found directional alignment. Bonds also shifted to positive territory, adding +0.74% as rate markets began to show cleaner trend characteristics.
The month was not without friction. Wheat reversed sharply against the established short position, while silver and aluminium gave back gains within the metals complex. China, after its strong January, pulled back significantly. These rotations are the natural rhythm of diversified trend following, some positions mature and reverse while others emerge.
The overall profile reflects a portfolio firing on multiple cylinders. Unlike January, where metals dominated almost exclusively, February saw meaningful contributions from equities, energy, and bonds. This broadening of trend expression is a healthy development for portfolio durability.
Performance Snapshot
Monthly Return (MTD): +9.34%
YTD Performance: +21.83%
Attribution Highlights
Top Contributors – February
Gold (+2.49%)
Gold maintained its position as the portfolio’s cornerstone, delivering +2.49% for February and pushing year-to-date contribution to +5.18%. The contract advanced steadily through the month, approaching the 5700 level before consolidating near highs. Unlike January’s volatile finish, February’s gains were retained through month end. Gold’s trend remains the defining feature of 2026 thus far.
Nikkei 225 (+1.40%)
The Nikkei 225 emerged as the second largest contributor, reflecting a powerful surge in Japanese equities. The move extended a base that had been building since late 2025, with February marking an acceleration phase. Year-to-date contribution now stands at +2.20%, making it a key diversifier away from the metals theme.
Energy Sector (+1.19%)
Energy delivered its strongest month in over a year, contributing +1.19% across the complex. Natural gas led the reversal with +0.45%, finally aligning with directional structure after months of frustration. Heating oil added +0.43%, while crude oil and gasoline provided supporting gains. The sector’s year-to-date contribution has shifted to +1.08%, a meaningful recovery from the persistent drag experienced throughout 2025.
Bottom Contributors – February
China Index (-1.20%)
The China Index was the largest detractor for the month, reversing a significant portion of January’s gains. After contributing +1.30% in January, the contract gave back -1.20% in February as the rally lost momentum. Year-to-date contribution remains marginally positive at +0.10%. The reversal illustrates how quickly emerging market trends can shift.
Wheat (-0.56%)
Wheat was the second worst contributor in February. The contract had been trending lower through much of 2025, but February saw a sharp reversal that caught the short position offside. The spike triggered systematic exits, pushing year-to-date contribution to -0.89%.
Silver (-0.51%)
Silver detracted -0.51% for the month, underperforming gold significantly within the precious metals complex. While gold pushed to new highs, silver struggled to maintain momentum, giving back a portion of its year-to-date gains. The divergence between gold and silver has become a notable feature of 2026.
Trend Spotlights
Top Monthly Performer – Gold (GC)
Gold’s February performance reinforced its status as the dominant trend of 2026. The contract advanced steadily through the month, pushing toward the 5700 level before consolidating. Unlike January’s volatile finish where late-month reversals trimmed gains, February saw a more orderly progression with profits largely retained at month end. Year-to-date, gold has contributed +5.18% to portfolio performance, accounting for nearly a quarter of total returns. The long-term trend remains firmly intact.
Notable Performer – Nikkei 225 (NK)
The Nikkei 225 delivered a standout performance in February, contributing +1.40% as Japanese equities surged. The move represents an acceleration from the base building phase of late 2025, with the contract pushing decisively higher through the month. This performance highlights the value of geographic diversification within the equity allocation, as Asian markets provided meaningful returns while some other regions consolidated.
Notable Reversal – Wheat (W)
Wheat provides a clear example of trend reversal dynamics in the agricultural complex. After maintaining a short position through the extended decline of 2025, February saw a sharp counter-trend rally that forced systematic exits. The contract had been trending lower for months, but the reversal was swift and decisive. The -0.56% attribution reflects the cost of the exit, but also demonstrates the discipline of the systematic approach. When structure breaks, capital preservation takes priority.
Sector Rundown
Metals: Metals contributed +3.93% MTD, lifting year-to-date performance to +11.16%. Gold and platinum led the gains, while tin continued its strong run. Silver and aluminium detracted, creating divergence within the complex. Metals remain the structural backbone of the portfolio despite the internal rotation.
Equities: Equities added +2.11% MTD, bringing year-to-date contribution to +5.97%. The Nikkei 225 was the standout performer, while European indices including the CAC 40 and FTSE 100 also contributed positively. China reversed sharply after January’s strength. US indices were mixed, with the S&P 500 slightly negative.
Energy: Energy delivered +1.19% MTD, its strongest contribution in over a year. The sector’s year-to-date performance has shifted to +1.08%, a notable recovery from the persistent weakness of 2025. Natural gas, heating oil, and crude all contributed positively, suggesting a potential regime change in the complex.
Grains: Grains contributed +0.75% MTD, though year-to-date remains negative at -0.45%. Soybeans and soybean oil were the primary positive contributors, while wheat’s reversal and corn’s weakness offset some gains. The sector shows signs of stabilisation after a challenging January.
Bonds: Bonds added +0.74% MTD, pushing year-to-date contribution to +0.67%. Long gilt and Japanese 10-year bonds led the gains, while Canadian and Japanese 10-year notes also contributed. Australian bonds and Euro Bund detracted. Rate markets are beginning to show cleaner directional structure.
Currencies: Currencies contributed +0.48% MTD, maintaining year-to-date performance at +2.90%. The Brazilian real continued its strong run, while the Australian dollar also added gains. The euro and British pound detracted as European currencies struggled. The sector remains constructive overall.
Softs: Soft commodities added +0.26% MTD, bringing year-to-date to +0.31%. Rubber and cocoa were the primary contributors, while coffee continued to detract. The sector remains relatively quiet without major trend development.
Meats: Meats were marginally negative at -0.11% MTD, with year-to-date at +0.20%. Live cattle and feeder cattle detracted slightly, while lean hogs provided a small positive offset. The sector lacks clear directional conviction.
Monthly Wrap
February 2026 delivered another exceptional month for the ATS Classic Benchmark. The portfolio advanced +9.34%, following January’s record +12.49%, bringing year-to-date performance to +21.83%. Back-to-back months above nine percent is a rare occurrence that reflects the current abundance of trend opportunity across global markets.
The month’s character differed meaningfully from January. While January was dominated almost exclusively by metals, February saw contributions spread across multiple sectors. Equities, energy, bonds, and currencies all added to returns alongside the continued strength in metals. This broadening of performance is a healthy sign for portfolio resilience.
Gold remains the defining trend of 2026, now contributing +5.18% year-to-date. But the emergence of the Nikkei as a major contributor, the turnaround in energy, and the stabilisation of bonds suggest that the opportunity set extends well beyond precious metals. The portfolio is capturing trends across asset classes, exactly as designed.
The reversals in China, wheat, and silver serve as reminders that not every position will contribute in every month. Trends mature, reverse, and new ones emerge. The ensemble’s role is to remain systematically exposed, allowing the natural rotation of markets to play out.
Looking Ahead
As the portfolio enters March, the year-to-date gain of +21.83% represents an extraordinary start. History suggests that such momentum can persist, but also that mean reversion is an ever-present force. The task remains unchanged: maintain exposure where structure exists and respond systematically when it breaks.
Gold’s trend shows no signs of structural deterioration despite operating at historically elevated levels. Japanese equities have emerged as a significant contributor and warrant continued attention. Energy’s turnaround may represent an early-stage regime change after the prolonged weakness of 2025, or it may prove temporary. Only time will reveal which.
The agricultural complex remains challenging, with wheat’s reversal a reminder that prolonged trends can snap back violently. Currencies continue to offer selective opportunity, particularly in commodity-linked pairs like the Australian dollar and Brazilian real.
For classic trend followers, February reinforced the core message: stay present, stay diversified, and let the ensemble do its work. The next major move is already forming somewhere in the 68-market universe. The portfolio’s job is to be there when it reveals itself.