“A new year announces itself not with whispers but with conviction. When structure emerges this clearly, the task is simply to remain present.”
About the ATS Classic Trend Benchmarking Portfolio
The ATS Classic Trend Portfolio is a purpose-built benchmarking model designed to illustrate how classic trend following systems are expected to behave across global futures markets. It is not a live trading program, but a reference framework that captures the essential mechanics of medium to long term trend logic: cut losses short, let profits run, and remain systematic. The portfolio applies a 10-system ensemble operating fully out of sample across 68 highly liquid futures markets. It does not employ volatility targeting or dynamic position sizing, allowing performance to reflect the raw behaviour of diversified trend systems rather than the influence of risk overlays.
Commentary
January 2026 delivered a historic start to the new year. The ATS Classic Benchmark advanced +12.49% for the month, marking the strongest single month performance in the thirteen months since tracking began. The month was defined by explosive moves across the metals complex, with gold and tin emerging as dominant contributors. For much of January, the portfolio was tracking toward an even more exceptional result before a sharp late-month reversal across precious metals trimmed gains significantly. Gold, silver, and platinum all experienced dramatic pullbacks from their highs, a reminder that trend systems must accept the natural ebb and flow of momentum even within winning positions. Despite this late turbulence, the breadth and magnitude of January’s trends proved sufficient to deliver record returns. Equities added meaningful support, led by China and Japan, while currencies contributed positively for the first time in several months. Grains and energy remained the primary sources of drag, with natural gas reversing sharply against its established short position. The overall profile reflects a market environment rich with directional structure. While not every position survived intact, the ensemble captured enough of the month’s major moves to produce a result well above historical norms.
Performance Snapshot
Monthly Return (MTD): +12.49% YTD Performance: +12.49% 
Attribution Highlights
Top Contributors – January
Gold (+2.68%) Gold was the largest contributor for January, extending its dominant run from 2025 into the new year. The contract pushed to fresh all-time highs above 5600 before reversing sharply in the final sessions. Despite the late pullback surrendering a significant portion of open profits, the net contribution remained the strongest in the portfolio. The move exemplifies the dual nature of trend following: capturing large directional runs while accepting that not all paper gains will be retained. Tin (+1.32%) Tin emerged as the second largest contributor, breaking out to historic highs during the month. The move was technically clean and persistent, allowing the system to remain fully engaged throughout. This was a textbook trend capture in a market that had built structure quietly before accelerating into January. China Index (+1.30%) The China Index delivered the third largest contribution, reflecting renewed strength in Asian equities. The move provided valuable diversification away from the metals-heavy leadership, demonstrating the ensemble’s ability to capture trends across uncorrelated asset classes.
Bottom Contributors – January
Natural Gas (-0.85%) Natural gas was the largest detractor for the month. The contract had been trending lower through much of 2025, but January saw a sharp reversal that caught the short position offside. The spike triggered systematic exits, illustrating how trend systems prioritise capital preservation over prediction when structure breaks. Rough Rice (-0.78%) Rough rice was the second worst contributor in January. After showing promise in late 2025, the contract failed to sustain momentum into the new year, giving back gains as directional structure deteriorated. Wheat (-0.33%) Wheat rounded out the bottom contributors for the month. Continued choppiness in the agricultural complex prevented clean trend expression, with the position oscillating without conviction. 
Trend Spotlights
Top Monthly Performer – Gold (GC) Gold’s January performance captured both the power and the volatility inherent in major trend moves. The contract rallied aggressively through mid-January, reaching historic highs above 5600 before reversing sharply in the final week. While the late pullback trimmed what would have been an even more substantial contribution, the net +2.68% attribution demonstrates the value of systematic position management. The long-term uptrend remains intact despite the short-term turbulence. 
Second Top Monthly Performer – Tin (SN) Tin delivered a breakout performance in January, contributing +1.32% as it pushed to all-time highs. The move developed from a consolidation base built through late 2025, with the breakout exhibiting the orderly progression of higher highs and higher lows that trend systems are designed to capture. Unlike precious metals, tin held its gains through month end. 
Notable Reversal – Natural Gas (NG) Natural gas provides a clear example of trend reversal dynamics. After maintaining a short position through much of the 2025 decline, January saw a sharp counter-trend rally that forced systematic exits. The reversal cost -0.85% in attribution but demonstrated the discipline of the exit process. When structure breaks, the system responds without hesitation, preserving capital for the next opportunity. 
Sector Rundown
Metals: The dominant sector once again, metals delivered +7.23% MTD. Gold and tin led the charge, with aluminium, zinc, and silver providing additional support. The late-month reversal in precious metals trimmed what would have been an even more exceptional result, but the sector remains the structural backbone of the portfolio. Equities: Equities contributed +3.86% MTD, with Asian indices leading the way. China Index and Nikkei 225 were standout performers, while European markets added modest gains. US indices were mixed, with the Russell 2000 positive but major benchmarks contributing marginally. Currencies: Currencies added +2.43% MTD, a welcome shift after a challenging 2025. The Australian dollar and Brazilian real were notable contributors, while the Swiss franc and British pound also generated positive returns. This marks the first meaningful positive month for FX in some time. Meats: Meats contributed +0.31% MTD, with feeder cattle leading the sector. The contribution was modest but consistent, reflecting stable trend structure in the livestock complex. Softs: Soft commodities were essentially flat at +0.05% MTD. Cocoa provided modest gains while coffee detracted slightly. The sector remains noisy without clear directional leadership. Bonds: Bonds were marginally negative at -0.08% MTD. Japanese bonds and Canadian 10-year contributed positively, but losses in UK gilts and US notes offset the gains. Rate markets continue to lack persistent directional structure. Energy: Energy detracted -0.11% MTD. Crude oil and heating oil generated small gains, but the sharp reversal in natural gas more than offset positive contributions elsewhere. The sector remains structurally challenged. Grains: Grains were the weakest sector at -1.21% MTD. Rough rice and wheat were the primary detractors, while corn and soybeans provided minimal offset. The agricultural complex continues to frustrate trend formation.
Monthly Wrap
January 2026 delivered a record start to the new year for the ATS Classic Benchmark. The portfolio advanced +12.49%, the strongest monthly result in the thirteen months since tracking began. This performance exceeded the previous high of +9.31% recorded in September 2025 by a considerable margin. The month reinforced several enduring principles of trend following. First, outsized returns concentrate around a small number of exceptional moves–gold and tin alone contributed nearly a third of the month’s gains. Second, trend systems must accept that not all open profits will be captured; the late-month reversal in precious metals transformed what was shaping up as a truly exceptional result into merely an excellent one. Third, diversification across asset classes allows the ensemble to capture trends wherever they emerge, as demonstrated by the contributions from Asian equities and currencies. The reversal in precious metals warrants particular attention. For much of January, gold was tracking toward a contribution that would have been among the largest single-month moves in portfolio history. The sharp pullback from highs above 5600 trimmed significant paper profits, yet the systematic approach ensured the position still delivered the largest positive attribution for the month. This is the essence of trend following: participating in major moves while accepting that the exact tops and bottoms will never be captured.
Looking Ahead
As the portfolio moves into February, metals remain the dominant structural theme, though the late-January volatility suggests maturity in the precious metals complex. Gold’s trend remains intact from a long-term perspective, but short-term turbulence may continue. Industrial metals, led by tin and aluminium, have shown cleaner structure and may warrant attention. Equities have begun 2026 with renewed momentum, particularly in Asia. Whether this reflects a durable shift or a temporary burst remains to be seen. Currencies have shown early signs of directional structure after a difficult 2025. Energy remains problematic, with natural gas demonstrating the dangers of established trends reversing unexpectedly. For classic trend followers, the message is clear: January’s exceptional result does not change the fundamental approach. Maintain exposure where structure persists. Accept reversals when they occur. Trust the ensemble to capture the geometry of markets over time. The next major outlier may already be forming. The task is to remain present, diversified, and systematic so that when it reveals itself, the portfolio is already there.