The question is not whether to include trend following in a portfolio. The question is how much compounding you are willing to sacrifice by not including it PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 13 of 15: The Right Toolkit:...
If you evaluate a trend follower using the Sharpe ratio, you will reject the best compounders and select the ones most likely to disappoint. The metric is not just imprecise. It is precisely backwards PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH |...
The greatest threat to the trend follower is not a bad month or a bad year. It is the decade-long bull market where the process quietly bleeds while buy-and-hold investors celebrate. The geometry of wealth extracts its price in patience....
If one program beats Berkshire on drawdown-adjusted compounding, it might be luck. If seventeen do, using different models, in different countries, across different decades, it is evidence of something deeper than skill. PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 10...
A dollar invested in Mulvaney’s Global Diversified Program in January 2000 is worth $75.50 today. A dollar in the S&P 500 is worth $7.48. A dollar in Berkshire Hathaway is worth $14.11. The geometry of wealth is the difference between...
The combination of trend following and equities is not additive. It is geometrically synergistic: a blended portfolio produces terminal wealth greater than either component alone, with a maximum drawdown smaller than either component alone. This is what happens when two...
Diversification works when you don’t need it and fails when you do. Trend following does the opposite. It performs when everything else is falling apart PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 7 of 15: Letting Winners Run and Harvesting...
In a fat-tailed world, the majority of wealth creation comes from a tiny number of extraordinary months. Trend following is the only process systematically designed to stay on board when they arrive PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 6...
How cutting losses protects the compounding engine with convex efficiency, and why the willingness to be wrong often is the price of being right geometrically PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 5 of 15: Why Markets Trend,(And Why They...
Markets are complex adaptive systems. Trends are their emergent output. And trend following harvests a structural feature of reality, not a temporary anomaly PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 4 of 15: The Smooth World That Never Was| NEXT:...
