Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: August 2026

The Trends That Finally Held

July gave trend followers plenty of movement, but little that lasted. August changed the result.

After two consecutive losing months, all seven indexes finished positive. Classic Trend led at +5.3%, followed closely by IASG TF at +5.1%. TTU TF gained 3.6%, BTOP50 3.0%, SG Trend and Systematic Momentum 2.9% each, and SG CTA 2.8%.

The ranking nearly inverted July’s. IASG, Classic Trend and TTU, the three weakest indexes last month, became the three strongest in August. The spread from first to last widened from 2.0 to 2.5 percentage points.

A monthly ranking can change quickly. To understand this one, we need to look beneath the returns.

The Barometer Recovered First

The TTU Trend Barometer rose every week, tracing 34, 39, 50 and 55. It ended August at the threshold of a favourable trend environment, 25 points above its July close.

SG Trend’s estimated return followed a less direct path. It stood at -0.75% after the first week, then improved to +0.83%, +1.13% and +1.66% by 28 August. The final monthly figure was +2.9%. That last gap includes the final trading session and any revision to the daily estimate; the published figures do not separate them.

What we can see is that trend strength recovered steadily while the estimated return improved more slowly. A stronger environment does not immediately pay a portfolio. The moves have to occur in markets where it holds positions.

Fewer Markets Rose. More Trends Held.

In the first week, 34 of 49 markets finished higher, the most in August. SG Trend nevertheless lost money. Precious metals rose sharply, but much of that rise ran against the declines they had traced since February.

By the final week, only 21 of 49 markets finished higher. The Barometer had climbed to 55, and SG Trend’s estimated return improved again. Grains rose across all eight contracts, with Wheat up 12.12%. Meats continued falling, as did the VIX. Eight of the ten largest market moves extended a structure already in place, compared with only three the week before.

These measures tell different stories. The count of rising markets records weekly direction. The Barometer records the share of markets with medium-to-strong trends, whether those trends point up or down.

Trend followers need movement that continues. August supplied more of it.

What the Reversal Tells Us

It is tempting to treat July’s losers as August’s winners and declare that one index construction has proved superior. Two months cannot establish that. Different levels of trend exposure may have contributed to the reversal, and so may differences in the markets each index held.

The paired results are still instructive. Across July and August combined, the seven indexes finished within roughly 1.5 percentage points of one another. Their monthly rankings swung much more than their two-month outcomes.

For an allocator, that is a reason to look beyond a single month. How an index behaves through both a loss and a recovery tells us more than either ranking alone.

The Longer View

Classic Trend remains the long-run leader, up 147.0% since January 2020 at a 14.5% CAGR. Its MAR of 0.92, Sharpe of 0.84 and Sortino of 1.35 lead the comparison.

BTOP50 retains the lowest maximum drawdown at 9.7% and the highest share of winning months at 62.5%. It also shares the year-to-date lead with SG Trend at 11.1%, with SG CTA close behind at 11.0%.

July reminded us that large market moves can reverse before a trend follower has time to benefit. August provided the next part of the story: when moves begin to persist, the results can change quickly.

Read the Full Report

The complete August 2026 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes covers all seven benchmarks, the weekly market sequence, the performance table and the long-run comparison.

Click on this link to read the full report