How cutting losses protects the compounding engine with convex efficiency, and why the willingness to be wrong often is the price of being right geometrically PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 5 of 15: Why Markets Trend,(And Why They...
Markets are complex adaptive systems. Trends are their emergent output. And trend following harvests a structural feature of reality, not a temporary anomaly PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 4 of 15: The Smooth World That Never Was| NEXT:...
Why financial returns are not normally distributed, why extreme events are not anomalies, and why the world that actually exists is the world for which trend following was built PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 3 of 15: The...
Why the most trusted metric in finance is optimised for a world that does not exist, and how it hides the geometric superiority of the processes that protect compounding PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 2 of 15: The...
Why losses and gains are not mirror images, and why this asymmetry is the most important force acting on your wealth PREVIOUS: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 1 of 15: The Lie of the Average | NEXT: THE GEOMETRY...
Why the number the industry quotes you is mathematically guaranteed to overstate your wealth NEXT: THE GEOMETRY OF WEALTH | Episode 2 of 15: The Asymmetry Trap In 2000, a 58-year-old teacher in Ohio invested her retirement savings in a...
The Escalator and the Elevator Why long trades and short trades require independent, asymmetric trend models, and the structural mechanism within Fractal Market Theory that explains why. This appendix accompanies Phase 2 of The Feedback Engine series. Episode 8 introduced...
The Zero Beneath the Zero What we found when we looked beneath the most quoted statistic in finance, and what it means for how we understand markets. The most quoted statistic in quantitative finance is the autocorrelation of daily returns....
The Verdict The zero is the most important number in finance. Beneath it lies a system built from feedback, shaped by policy, and running hotter than the textbooks allow. This series began with a number. The near-zero autocorrelation that appears...
The Escalator and the Elevator Why long trades and short trades require independent calibration, and what the data reveals when you test it. Episode 7 ended with a question. Three forces explain the decline in simple trend-following returns: regime suppression,...
