Category: Series

The Same Pattern at Every Scale Why a shared architecture carries questions across domains, not answers Previous: Episode 3, What Survives Is What Could Not Be EliminatedNext: Episode 5, What the Eye Cannot See, the Pattern Reveals Across a slope,...

What Survives Is What Could Not Be Eliminated Persistence is the visible residue of variation, constraint and history Previous: Episode 2, The Future Is Not Hidden, It Is UnwrittenNext: Episode 4, The Same Pattern at Every Scale The river at...

The Future Is Not Hidden, It Is Unwritten What a forecast does when its subjects can act on it Previous: Episode 1, What Bohm SawNext: Episode 3, What Survives Is What Could Not Be Eliminated Imagine a bar that is...

What Bohm Saw The relationships between things are part of what the system is Previous: Introduction Next:Episode 2, The Future Is Not Hidden, It Is Unwritten A risk report shows each futures position within its intended limit. Then a common...

Hidden in Plain Sight A working trader’s case for seeing relationships, constraints and process Next: Episode 1, What Bohm Saw A forester returns to a familiar stand and notices that the undergrowth, birds and soil no longer seem to respond...

Every Outlier Begins Somewhere The Foundations Series: Ten Essays on What Systematic Trend Following Rests On Watch the Episode SERIES OVERVIEW There is a moment in every serious trader’s education when the accumulation of information stops and understanding begins. The...

The Map Is Useful Until the World Changes An eight-part journey through five centuries of uncertainty In December 1997, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for work that had transformed the pricing of...

Built for What We Cannot Foresee What five centuries of managing uncertainty can teach us about surviving the next surprise A Venetian merchant commits capital to a ship that may never return. An eighteenth-century insurer studies mortality tables before making...

The Physicists Who Stopped Predicting How complexity science changed the questions we ask about markets, crises and survival In 2009, the financial system was still absorbing the shock of the previous year. Banks had failed, markets had frozen and governments...

The River That Was Not on the Map How weak mortgages became highly rated securities, and why the losses spread far beyond the homes on which the loans were made. United States, 2006. A mortgage lender approves a loan that...