Introduction
Systematic trend following performance in April 2026 navigated one of the most turbulent months in recent memory. The benchmark gained +2.99 percent as geopolitical shocks, tariff anniversaries, and sharp sector reversals tested the resilience of rules-based processes. Despite the turbulence, trend followers delivered another strong month for 2026.
The trailing 12-month return surged to +18.12 percent, a substantial improvement as the rolling window captured recent strength. The five-year CAGR settled at 5.47 percent with the MAR ratio at 0.34. The universe contracted slightly to 107 programs as two programs exited the reporting cohort.
April unfolded across five distinct phases. The month opened with the anniversary of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, reigniting commodity markets as fresh executive orders adjusted duties on metals and pharmaceuticals. Crude oil surged +18 percent in the opening week. Then came relief as ceasefire optimism sent energy reversing sharply lower. The Strait of Hormuz geopolitics dominated mid-month: opening, then re-closing, creating dramatic two-way action across the petroleum complex. Energy traced swings of +18, -13, -11, +16, and +10 percent across successive weeks. Metals surged then corrected. Yet through it all, managers that remained mechanically aligned with their signals were rewarded.
Leadership was commanding. Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program dominated the month with a gain of +24.40 percent, followed by Melissinos Trading’s Eupatrid Commodity at +13.45 percent and FTC Capital’s Futures Fund Classic at +8.76 percent. The month punished hesitation but rewarded persistence.
Welcome to Rising Stars and Trend Titans, where we track 107 globally diversified, rules-based programs with at least five years of verified performance. This month’s edition examines how managers navigated April’s geopolitical turbulence and which approaches captured opportunity through the repricing.
Criteria for Inclusion
These criteria distinguish durable systematic processes from short-term performance artefacts.
The Rising Stars and Trend Titans report evaluates globally diversified systematic trend-following programs that meet clear standards of durability, transparency, and relevance.
Programs included must satisfy the following criteria:
- Validated Track Record — A minimum of five years of performance history to ensure exposure to multiple market regimes.
- Global Diversification — Demonstrated exposure across equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies.
- Systematic Framework — Fully rules-based execution, removing discretionary decision-making.
- Consistent Reporting — Verified monthly performance sourced from the Nilsson Hedge Database.
- Balanced Scope — Inclusion of both established managers and emerging programs that meet the five-year threshold.
For a full listing of the programs featured in this month’s report, click here.
Systematic Trend Following Performance Overview — April 2026
April delivered a resilient month for the systematic trend-following universe despite cross-sector turbulence. The benchmark, representing 107 reporting programs, gained +2.99 percent. The SG Trend Index closed April at +2.98 percent for the month and +10.27 percent year-to-date, marking a strong single month for 2026 and the first double-digit YTD reading of the year.
Risk metrics improved. Maximum drawdown declined to 16.13 percent, the MAR ratio settled at 0.34, and skew remained near neutral at -0.07. The TTU Trend Barometer traced a volatile path through the month: 66 to 55 to 48 to 55 to 50 to 55 percent, ultimately reclaiming Strong territory as conditions stabilised.
The VAMI extended its advance as rules-based processes navigated the repricing. The strongest program gained +24.40 percent, while the weakest declined -4.11 percent. Dispersion narrowed with a standard deviation of 3.44, down from 4.08 in February.
This pattern reflects an environment where conviction through reversals determined outcomes.
Summary: April tested trend-following architectures with tariff shocks and Hormuz geopolitics. Energy reversed repeatedly. Metals surged then corrected. Yet systematic managers delivered another strong month for 2026. Conviction held.
Top 10 Trend Following Performance: April 2026
April’s leaderboard shows who captured the month. The five-year tables show whose architecture has endured.
At the top of the leaderboard, Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program delivered +24.40 percent, continuing its remarkable 2026 run. One exceptional month does not define manager quality, but Mulvaney’s five-year CAGR of 58.82 percent demonstrates that persistent compounding across the long-term lens carries deeper allocator significance.
Melissinos Trading’s Eupatrid Commodity followed with +13.45 percent, capturing the commodity repricing that defined the month. FTC Capital’s Futures Fund Classic returned +8.76 percent, demonstrating consistent performance through the turbulence.
Quantica Capital’s Managed Futures Program 2x added +8.50 percent, while Rational Advisors’ ReSolve Adaptive Asset Allocation delivered +7.84 percent and Graham Capital’s K4D-15V returned +7.60 percent.
AlphaSimplex’s Adaptive Trend Fund contributed +7.52 percent, Standpoint’s Multi-Asset Fund added +7.49 percent, Quintik Capital’s Managed Futures returned +7.39 percent, and Graham Capital’s Tactical Trend delivered +6.98 percent.
Takeaway: Ten programs exceeded +6.9 percent despite sharp sector reversals. The month punished hesitation but rewarded persistence. Breadth and magnitude both favoured those who stayed aligned with their signals.
Monthly Dispersion Summary: April 2026
April’s dispersion profile reflected broad participation despite the month’s dramatic reversals.
Key Statistics:
Max Return: +24.40 percent
Min Return: -4.11 percent
Mean: +2.99 percent
Median: +2.35 percent
Standard Deviation: 3.44
Reporting Programs: 107
Most programs clustered between 0 and +5 percent, indicating broad positive participation despite the sharp sector moves. The right tail extended to Mulvaney’s +24.40 percent. Losses stayed contained, with the worst performer declining only -4.11 percent despite the month’s challenging conditions.
Dispersion narrowed from February, with the standard deviation at 3.44 versus 4.08. This compression reflects the challenging environment: fewer programs achieved outsized gains, but fewer suffered significant losses.
Allocator View:
- Conviction through tariff shocks and Hormuz geopolitics delivered positive results.
- Downside stayed controlled despite sharp energy reversals.
- A strong trend-following month emerged from the most turbulent conditions.
Top 10 List: 5-Year CAGR — April 2026
The five-year lens distinguishes long-term compounders from episodic performers. Monthly leaderboards reveal who captured recent opportunity; five-year tables reveal whose architecture has endured.
Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program extended its commanding lead with a 58.82 percent CAGR, up from 53.06 percent in February. The five-year compound rate has added nearly 6 percentage points in just two months, a testament to the power of sustained trend exposure during favourable conditions.
Fieldhouse Capital’s Global Managed Futures followed with a 34.31 percent CAGR. CFM ISTrends 1.5X delivered 17.77 percent, demonstrating the effectiveness of diversification and measured leverage.
Institutional leaders including AQR Managed Futures HV Strategy at 16.98 percent, Bowmoor Capital’s Global Alpha Fund at 15.05 percent, and AQR Managed Futures at 12.64 percent anchored the upper tier.
CFM IS Trends, East Coast ECCM STF, Lynx 1.5x, and Winton Diversified Macro rounded out the top ten.
The benchmark’s 5.47 percent CAGR highlights the degree of separation achieved by coherent long-term design.
Dispersion of 5-Year CAGR: Summary — April 2026
Five-year dispersion widened further as top performers extended their lead.
Most programs clustered between +2 and +10 percent CAGR, forming the institutional core. The mean CAGR settled at 5.06 percent with a median of 4.05 percent. The right tail extended dramatically, with Mulvaney’s 58.82 percent CAGR now standing as a clear outlier approaching 60 percent. The left tail extended to -10.30 percent, reflecting ongoing selection pressure on weaker designs.
Long-term compounding remained anchored in architecture, not regime.
Top 10 List: 5-Year MAR Leaders — April 2026
Efficiency stayed concentrated among programs combining return with controlled drawdowns.
Winton Capital Management’s Multi-Strategy led with a MAR of 2.63 and a maximum drawdown of just 4.10 percent. CFM IS Trends Fund and CFM ISTrends 1.5X followed with MARs of 1.88 and 1.86 respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of diversification and measured leverage.
Programs such as Fieldhouse, AQR Managed Futures, Campbell, AQR HV Strategy, Bowmoor, Bastiat, and AQR Managed Futures UCITS filled out the efficiency spectrum, each expressing a distinct balance between return ambition and risk governance.
CAGR vs. Max Drawdown — Top 10 MAR Strategies
The top MAR scatterplot revealed clear efficiency regimes.
Low-volatility leaders occupied the lower-left region, demonstrating that exceptional risk-adjusted returns do not require large drawdowns. Institutional middle-ground strategies formed a dense centre, balancing competitive returns with moderate risk profiles. Higher-return designs extended into the upper-right, reflecting the trade-off between absolute performance and drawdown tolerance.
The benchmark sat well below most leaders, underscoring the efficiency achieved through coherent design.
Efficiency did not arise from avoiding drawdowns, but from surviving them without losing participation.
CAGR% vs Max DD% Scatterplot: All Programs — April 2026
The full-universe scatterplot reaffirmed the industry’s shape.
Most programs clustered between 0 and 12 percent CAGR with drawdowns between 10 and 35 percent. A small group of right-tail outliers demonstrated the power of convexity, generating returns well above the core while accepting larger drawdowns. The left tail highlighted the cost of weak design, with several programs showing negative CAGRs alongside significant drawdowns.
Durability was common. Exceptional outcomes were rare.
Conclusion — April 2026
April tested trend-following architectures with tariff anniversaries, Hormuz geopolitics, and sharp sector reversals. Energy traced five successive weeks of dramatic moves. Metals surged then corrected. Yet systematic managers delivered another strong month for 2026. The benchmark gained +2.99 percent as the SG Trend Index reached +10.27 percent year-to-date.
Long-term results continued to strengthen. The industry core compounded further, Mulvaney extended its lead toward 60 percent CAGR, and efficiency leaders demonstrated that controlled drawdowns remain central to sustainability.
Allocator takeaway: A strong trend-following month for 2026 emerged from the most turbulent conditions. When markets move sharply in multiple directions, rules-based conviction captures the directional moves that matter. April proved the point.
Conviction held. Architecture endured. And those who trusted their systems captured the opportunity that emerged from the repricing.
Congratulations to April’s Rising Stars and enduring Trend Titans for delivering exceptional, process-driven performance.
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