Introduction
Systematic trend following performance in January 2026 exceeded expectations as the benchmark surged +4.16 percent.
A new year announces itself not with whispers but with conviction. January 2026 opened with authority as the momentum established in December carried forward with even greater force. The benchmark surged +4.16 percent, the strongest monthly advance in recent memory. Systematic trend-following entered 2026 with clear directional tailwinds.
The universe expanded as eight programs joined the reporting cohort, bringing the total to 109 programs. Five-year metrics strengthened across the board: the total return climbed to +36.33 percent, the CAGR rose to 6.39 percent, and maximum drawdown improved to 16.87 percent. The MAR ratio reached 0.38, reflecting improved risk-adjusted efficiency.
The month delivered violent sector rotation beneath a surging trend environment. Energy dominated while metals were crushed, a sharp reversal from December’s precious metals leadership. Yet paradoxically, this rotation produced one of the strongest trend readings in recent memory. Dispersion stayed elevated with a standard deviation of 4.15, as differentiation between sector exposures determined outcomes.
Leadership was commanding. Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program dominated the month with a gain of +28.33 percent, followed by TGCC’s M3 Momentum Fund at +16.52 percent and Melissinos Trading’s Eupatrid Commodity at +16.00 percent. These results underscore how diversified trend exposure captures opportunity even as leadership rotates between sectors.
The industry tone remained expansionary despite the rotation. January rewarded programs with broad diversification capable of capturing gains in energy and currencies while managing the reversal in metals. When structure emerges this clearly, the task is simply to remain present.
Welcome to Rising Stars and Trend Titans, where we track 109 globally diversified, rules-based programs with at least five years of verified performance. This month’s edition examines how managers navigated January’s sector rotation and which approaches delivered exceptional results to open 2026.
Criteria for Inclusion
These criteria distinguish durable systematic processes from short-term performance artefacts.
The Rising Stars and Trend Titans report evaluates globally diversified systematic trend-following programs that meet clear standards of durability, transparency, and relevance.
Programs included must satisfy the following criteria:
- Validated Track Record — A minimum of five years of performance history to ensure exposure to multiple market regimes.
- Global Diversification — Demonstrated exposure across equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies.
- Systematic Framework — Fully rules-based execution, removing discretionary decision-making.
- Consistent Reporting — Verified monthly performance sourced from the Nilsson Hedge Database.
- Balanced Scope — Inclusion of both established managers and emerging programs that meet the five-year threshold.
For a full listing of the programs featured in this month’s report, click here.
Systematic Trend Following Performance Overview — January 2026
January delivered a powerful start to 2026 for the systematic trend-following universe. The benchmark, now representing 109 reporting programs, gained +4.16 percent. The move extended the momentum established in December and set a constructive tone for the year ahead.
Risk metrics improved. Maximum drawdown declined to 16.87 percent, the MAR ratio strengthened to 0.38, and skew settled at -0.04. Correlation across programs stayed elevated, consistent with a synchronised trend environment.
The VAMI reached new highs following the two-month rally. Beneath the surface, violent sector rotation reshaped the opportunity set. Energy surged to dominance while metals gave back December’s gains. Yet the overall trend environment strengthened, demonstrating that diversified systematic approaches can thrive during rotation. The strongest program gained +28.33 percent, while the weakest declined -3.79 percent.
This pattern reflects an environment where diversification and adaptability determined outcomes.
Summary: January extended December’s breakout despite sharp sector rotation. Energy dominated, metals reversed, yet the trend environment surged to its strongest reading in months. Diversification proved its worth.
Top 10 Trend Following Performance: January 2026
January rewarded diversified trend exposure and the ability to navigate sector rotation. Leadership clustered among programs capable of capturing gains in energy and currencies while managing the sharp reversal in metals.
At the top of the leaderboard, Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program delivered +28.33 percent, building on December’s +20.38 percent gain for a two-month surge exceeding +54 percent. The performance demonstrated how long-term trend exposure compounds when conviction persists through rotation.
TGCC’s M3 Momentum Fund followed with +16.52 percent, capturing momentum across multiple asset classes. Melissinos Trading’s Eupatrid Commodity returned +16.00 percent, reflecting strength in commodity-focused systematic approaches that captured energy’s dominance.
EMC Capital Advisors’ EMC Classic Program added +11.47 percent, while Lynx Asset Management’s Lynx 1.5x delivered +10.85 percent and Bowmoor Capital’s Global Alpha Fund returned +10.39 percent.
Crabel Capital’s Advanced Trend contributed +9.95 percent, Man AHL’s Trend Alternative added +9.67 percent, Anderson Creek Trading’s Standard Diversified Strategy returned +9.54 percent, and East Coast Capital’s ECCM STF delivered +9.07 percent.
Takeaway: January’s leaderboard featured depth as well as magnitude. Ten programs exceeded +9 percent despite violent sector rotation, demonstrating that diversified systematic approaches can thrive when opportunity shifts between markets.
Monthly Dispersion Summary: January 2026
January’s dispersion profile reflected a surging trend environment beneath violent sector rotation.
Key Statistics:
Max Return: +28.33 percent
Min Return: -3.79 percent
Mean: +4.16 percent
Median: +3.64 percent
Standard Deviation: 4.15
Reporting Programs: 109
Most programs clustered between +1 and +7 percent, indicating broad participation despite the rotation. The right tail extended powerfully, with Mulvaney’s +28.33 percent gain standing apart. Losses stayed contained, with the worst performer declining only -3.79 percent despite metals reversing sharply.
Dispersion remained comparable to December, with the standard deviation holding at 4.15 versus 4.25 the prior month. This stability, despite sector rotation, suggests underlying trend conditions remained robust.
Allocator View:
- Diversification proved its worth as sector leadership rotated violently.
- Downside stayed controlled despite metals reversing December’s gains.
- The strongest trend readings in months confirmed the opportunity set expanded.
Top 10 List: 5-Year CAGR — January 2026
The five-year lens continued to distinguish long-term compounders from episodic performers.
Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program extended its lead with a 51.09 percent CAGR, up from 44.38 percent in December. The two-month rally added nearly 7 percentage points to the five-year compound rate, demonstrating how sustained trends translate into exceptional long-term results.
Fieldhouse Capital’s Global Managed Futures followed with a 36.40 percent CAGR, up from 32.95 percent. Bowmoor Capital’s Global Alpha Fund delivered 20.96 percent, balancing strong returns with controlled drawdowns.
Institutional leaders including CFM ISTrends 1.5x at 18.65 percent, AQR Managed Futures HV Strategy at 16.41 percent, and East Coast ECCM STF at 14.35 percent anchored the upper tier.
Sterling Partners SPQI Select, CFM IS Trends Fund, AQR Managed Futures, and DUNN Capital’s Managed Futures Strategy rounded out the top ten.
The benchmark’s 6.39 percent CAGR highlights the degree of separation achieved by coherent long-term design.
Dispersion of 5-Year CAGR: Summary — January 2026
Five-year dispersion widened as top performers extended their lead.
Most programs clustered between +2 and +10 percent CAGR, forming the institutional core. The mean CAGR rose to 5.96 percent with a median of 5.00 percent. The right tail extended further, with Mulvaney’s 51.09 percent CAGR now standing as a clear outlier. The left tail extended to -8.36 percent, reflecting ongoing selection pressure on weaker designs.
Long-term compounding remained anchored in process, not regime.
Top 10 List: 5-Year MAR Leaders — January 2026
Efficiency stayed concentrated among programs combining return with controlled drawdowns.
Winton Capital Management’s Multi-Strategy led with a MAR of 2.70 and a maximum drawdown of just 4.10 percent. CFM IS Trends Fund and CFM ISTrends 1.5x followed with MARs of 1.97 and 1.95 respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of diversification and measured leverage.
Programs such as Bowmoor, Fieldhouse, Campbell, Bastiat, AQR, and Agility Trading filled out the efficiency spectrum, each expressing a distinct balance between return ambition and risk governance.
CAGR vs. Max Drawdown — Top 10 MAR Strategies
The top MAR scatterplot revealed clear efficiency regimes.
Low-volatility leaders occupied the lower-left region, demonstrating that exceptional risk-adjusted returns do not require large drawdowns. Institutional middle-ground strategies formed a dense centre, balancing competitive returns with moderate risk profiles. Higher-return designs extended into the upper-right, reflecting the trade-off between absolute performance and drawdown tolerance.
The benchmark sat well below most leaders, underscoring the efficiency achieved through coherent design.
Efficiency did not arise from avoiding drawdowns, but from surviving them without losing participation.
CAGR% vs Max DD% Scatterplot: All Programs — January 2026
The full-universe scatterplot reaffirmed the industry’s shape.
Most programs clustered between 0 and 12 percent CAGR with drawdowns between 10 and 35 percent. A small group of right-tail outliers demonstrated the power of convexity, generating returns well above the core while accepting larger drawdowns. The left tail highlighted the cost of weak design, with several programs showing negative CAGRs alongside significant drawdowns.
Durability was common. Exceptional outcomes were rare.
Conclusion — January 2026
January confirmed that the momentum established in late 2025 has carried into the new year. The benchmark surged +4.16 percent, extending December’s gains despite violent sector rotation. Energy dominated while metals reversed, yet the overall trend environment strengthened to its most powerful reading in months.
Long-term results strengthened. The industry core continued to compound, the right tail extended further, and efficiency leaders demonstrated that diversification and controlled drawdowns remain central to sustainability.
Allocator takeaway: Diversification earned its keep. Programs that held broad exposure navigated the rotation from metals to energy without surrendering gains. When structure emerges this clearly, the task is simply to remain present.
January was a conviction month. Process held, diversification protected, and systematic approaches proved once again that durability is the foundation of long-run success.
Congratulations to January’s Rising Stars and enduring Trend Titans for delivering exceptional, process-driven performance to open 2026.
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