In my recent conversation with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, we stepped back from day-to-day market noise and looked at something more structural.
The globalised world that compressed cycles, smoothed imbalances, and truncated trends is fading. In its place, we are moving toward a regionalised world of competing spheres of influence, fractured supply chains, persistent inflation differentials, and slower release valves.
From a trading perspective, this matters.
A fragmented world does not resolve imbalances quickly. Energy shortages remain local. Currency stress reflects regional pressure rather than global averages. Sanctions persist. Supply chains take years to rebuild. These are not shocks. They are conditions.
And conditions are what create trends.
We also went deeper than macro narratives. We explored why traders consistently misunderstand uncertainty, why optimisation creates fragility, and why backtests feel comforting precisely because they show a finished world. Real markets do not reveal themselves all at once. They disclose sequentially.
That distinction changes everything.
Trend following does not rely on prediction. It relies on response. On predefined brakes, permission to stay exposed, and the discipline to act on what exists now rather than what feels comfortable.
In a world where coordination weakens and persistence increases, this approach matters more than ever.
If globalization was a headwind for trend followers, regionalisation may well be a tailwind.
Listen to the full episode here