This Week in Trend: 13th March 2026

Energy building. Metals retreating. Equities sliding. And the barometer holds its ground above the threshold.

The second week of March confirmed the directional themes rather than disrupting them. Energy led for a second consecutive week. Metals declined for a second consecutive week. Equities extended their losses across most major markets. And the TTU Barometer, absorbing all of it, rose from 55 percent to 57 percent. Above the threshold. Remaining strong. The trend environment is holding its ground and continues to be classified as strong.

Crude oil Brent led all 49 assets at 11.27 percent. Heating oil added 10.83 percent. Gasoline RBOB advanced 10.73 percent. Crude oil WTI gained 8.59 percent. Natural gas declined 1.73 percent and ethanol slipped 0.66 percent, but every petroleum contract finished the week higher, delivering a clean sweep across crude and refined products. This is no longer a one-week volatility event. Two consecutive weeks of broad energy gains are building the kind of multi-week trend structure that systematic strategies are designed to capture.

But the rest of the market told a different story.

Palladium fell 4.97 percent, the worst performer across all 49 assets. Platinum declined 4.65 percent. Silver dropped 3.52 percent. Gold slipped 1.88 percent. Copper lost 0.86 percent. Every metal finished lower for a second consecutive week. The February gains are being given back with consistency and conviction.

Equities extended their losses. The DJIA fell 1.93 percent. The S&P 500 declined 1.59 percent. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.80 percent. The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.11 percent. The Nikkei 225 declined 1.54 percent. Euro Stoxx 50 was the sole exception, eking out a marginal 0.12 percent gain. Two consecutive weeks of negative equity returns are generating increasingly negative trend signals across most major indices.

Grains posted a sixth consecutive positive week. Oats led at 10.34 percent, the fifth-best performer across all 49 assets. Soybeans, soybean meal, corn, rough rice, soybean oil, and canola all advanced. Seven of eight components positive. Six straight weeks of consistent gains. The agricultural complex remains the most reliable systematic trend currently active.

The TTU Trend Barometer rose from 55 percent to 57 percent. Strong. Falling Weakly. That is the most important number in this week’s report. Metals declined for a second consecutive week. Equities fell across most major markets. Bonds continued lower. Currencies were broadly negative against a recovering dollar. And yet the barometer, absorbing all of it, held above 55 percent and nudged higher. The reason is energy. Two consecutive weeks of extraordinary petroleum gains are generating genuine trend signals across multiple timeframes, and those signals are providing the breadth that sustains the strong classification despite mounting headwinds elsewhere. At 57 percent the environment remains firmly in strong territory. The Falling Weakly rate of change is a signal worth monitoring, confirming that breadth is not expanding from here, but the classification itself is constructive and supports continued systematic positioning.

The SG Trend Index improved to -1.53 percent MTD. Year-to-date performance recovered to 7.13 percent, as energy’s second consecutive strong week provided a meaningful offset to metals and equity headwinds. The year-to-date foundation remains strong.

This was not a disruption week. It was a confirmation week. A week where existing themes deepened and directional signals sharpened. Energy is building genuine trend structure. Metals are correcting with consistency. Equities are weakening broadly. Grains continue to deliver their sixth straight positive week.

For systematic trend followers, the message is clear. Energy long positioning is generating genuine multi-week trend signals, not a volatility spike. Metals long positions are under sustained pressure and require monitoring for reversal signals on longer timeframes. Grains are the quiet consistent contributor that diversified portfolios depend on. The barometer at 57 percent with weakly falling momentum supports continued systematic positioning with disciplined risk sizing. The strong environment is not a guarantee of smooth sailing, but it is the environment where trend following strategies are designed to perform.

Energy rules. Metals retreat. Equities slide. The barometer holds strong. Patience and discipline remain the edge.

TTU Trend Barometer: 57 percent, up from 55 (Falling Weakly) SG Trend Index: -1.53 percent MTD | 7.13 percent YTD

Standouts: Crude oil Brent, heating oil, gasoline RBOB, oats, orange juice

Setbacks: Palladium, platinum, silver, Russell 2000

#TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #GlobalMacro #TTUTrendBarometer

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