THIS WEEK IN TREND: 13th November 2026

For the first time in five weeks, market breadth, measured trend strength and trend-following returns all improved together. Twenty-three of 49 futures contracts finished higher, up from 17. The TTU Trend Barometer jumped 13 percentage points from 39% to 52%, while the SG Trend Index recovered from +9.74% to +11.25% year to date.

The agreement matters, but the measures still describe different things. Breadth counts markets rising during the week. The Barometer measures the proportion displaying medium-to-strong trends in either direction. The SG Trend Index reflects returns earned by the trend-following portfolios it represents. At 52%, the Barometer has returned to Neutral territory, just three points below the favourable threshold. TTU describes overall strength as Strong, with its 10-day rate of change Rising Moderately. The five-week sequence now reads 36, 41, 36, 39 and 52.

Currencies provided the clearest directional structure. The US Dollar Index gained 1.12%, breaking above its September range to a new chart high. Every other currency contract declined. CHF lost 2.33%, AUD 1.29%, EUR 1.07% and GBP 1.06%. EUR, CHF and NZD reached new lows. Unlike a weekly rebound against an established decline, the dollar breakout and several currency declines extended existing trends.

Bonds ended their five-week bounce without producing a higher high. All four maturities fell, taking the sector average to -1.66%. The 30 Year Bond lost 2.94% and the 10 Year Note 1.79%. For portfolios maintaining short exposure, the renewed falls would have favoured those positions, subject to exposure, sizing and execution. The larger percentage decline at the long end does not establish its actual portfolio contribution.

Metals reversed last week’s rebound. All five contracts declined, leaving the sector down 3.28%. Silver fell 5.43% to another low, Gold lost 4.63% and slipped back below 4,000, and Platinum fell 3.07%. These moves ran with the declines in the precious metals. Copper fell 2.36%, but that move challenged the advance it had maintained since last autumn. The same direction, again, carried different implications for trend followers.

Equity Indices gained 3.05%, with all seven contracts higher. The Nikkei 225 rose 4.85%, the DAX 3.69%, Euro Stoxx 50 3.53% and Nasdaq 100 3.51%. The DAX reached a new chart high, while Japan and US large caps recovered without yet returning to their earlier highs. The rebound was broad, but the structures beneath individual indices remained distinct.

Grains gained 2.88%, with all eight contracts higher after four weeks of sector declines. Oats led the entire board at +8.23%, resuming its advance after a four-week pullback. Soybean Meal gained 3.32%, and Rough Rice edged to another high. Corn and Wheat also rose, but their small gains occurred within established declines. Meats led the sectors at +4.00%, although Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle and Lean Hogs all bounced within larger downward structures rather than confirming reversals.

Energy declined 0.85%, far less than the previous week’s 6.83% fall. Natural Gas rose 7.74% against its longer decline, while Gasoline RBOB fell 5.59%, extending its break below the spring range. Brent lost 2.52% and WTI 2.50%, with neither crude contract resuming its earlier advance. Soft Commodities gained 0.45%, led by a 4.00% rebound in Lumber within its decline. Bitcoin fell 8.99%, its sixth consecutive weekly decline, while the VIX dropped 19.36% back inside its earlier range.

Of the ten largest weekly moves, six followed their prevailing structures, three ran against them, and the VIX returned inside its range. That is a marked contrast with the previous week, when only two of the eleven largest moves followed established structures. The shift helps explain why this week looked more favourable to trend-following positions, although the largest moves alone cannot establish either the Barometer reading or the SG Trend Index’s actual return attribution.

The SG Trend Index’s estimated November month-to-date return improved to -2.76%, and its year-to-date gain recovered to +11.25%. That is an increase of 1.51 percentage points for the week. Across the five weekly changes since the 9 October close, the index remains 4.89 percentage points lower. The recovery is consistent with persistence across Currencies, Bonds, precious metals and selected equity markets, but precise contributions cannot be established without the index’s underlying positions.

The week ahead turns on whether the Barometer holds its jump to 52% or crosses the 55% threshold into a favourable environment. Will the dollar extend its breakout? Will Bond declines resume toward their autumn lows? Can Gold remain below 4,000, and will Copper’s break deepen? Will the DAX continue higher while other equity indices recover? The relevant question is not simply which markets rise next week, but which structures persist.

For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

Top Movers (Up)

Oats (Grains) +8.23%

Natural Gas (Energy) +7.74%

Feeder Cattle (Meats) +5.33%

Nikkei 225 (Equity Indices) +4.85%

Lumber (Soft Commodities) +4.00%

Top Movers (Down)

VIX (Volatility Index) -19.36%

Bitcoin (Crypto) -8.99%

Gasoline RBOB (Energy) -5.59%

Silver (Metals) -5.43%

Gold (Metals) -4.63%

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