THIS WEEK IN TREND: 14 August 2026

Global futures markets delivered a more selective week to Friday 14 August. Energy led at plus 5.33 percent, with all six contracts higher. Heating Oil surged 9.75 percent, Gasoline RBOB 6.66 percent, Brent 5.95 percent and WTI 5.40 percent, sharply reversing the weakness of the previous fortnight. Grains followed at plus 2.66 percent, with seven of eight contracts advancing. Equity Indices added another 0.82 percent. Breadth nevertheless narrowed to 31 of 49 contracts higher, down from 34.

The TTU Trend Barometer climbed to 39 percent from 34, leaving it just one point below the 40 percent Neutral threshold. More importantly, the ten day rate of change turned to Rising Weakly, its first positive reading since the sharp deterioration three weeks ago. The five week sequence now reads 50, 52, 30, 34, 39. Nine of the twenty-two points lost in the collapse have now been recovered.

This time, the returns followed. The SG Trend Index improved to plus 8.80 percent year to date, up from plus 7.10 percent a week earlier, with August month to date at plus 0.83 percent. For the first time in three weeks, trend strength and trend-following returns improved together. But the reason matters. Much of the payoff came from moves already in place. The VIX declined for a fourth week, Meats fell for a third, Bitcoin resumed its broader decline, while Equity Indices and Grains continued higher.

Energy was the striking exception. Its 5.33 percent surge produced four of the five largest gains on the board, yet for a trend-following portfolio it may have been a source of pain rather than profit. The sector had been falling for two weeks. A portfolio already positioned short would have experienced this week’s rally as a reversal. Meanwhile, last week’s apparent new trends struggled for confirmation. Metals went from a clean five-contract sweep higher to virtually flat. Sugar added only 0.91 percent after its 12.21 percent breakout. Bonds surrendered their one-week rebound.

That is the deeper message from this week. Fewer markets rose, yet trend strength improved and trend-following returns recovered. The biggest move on the board was not necessarily the biggest portfolio opportunity. For trend followers, movement alone is never enough. Persistence is what converts movement into something a systematic strategy can own.

TTU Trend Barometer: 39 percent, up from 34 (Rising Weakly)
SG Trend Index: plus 0.83 percent MTD for August | plus 8.80 percent YTD as of 14 August

Top Movers (Up): Heating Oil (Energy) plus 9.75 percent, Gasoline RBOB (Energy) plus 6.66 percent, Crude Oil Brent (Energy) plus 5.95 percent, Wheat (Grains) plus 5.47 percent, Crude Oil WTI (Energy) plus 5.40 percent
Top Movers (Down): VIX (Volatility Index) minus 8.43 percent, Palladium (Metals) minus 3.83 percent, Feeder Cattle (Meats) minus 3.09 percent, Live Cattle (Meats) minus 2.84 percent, Cocoa (Soft Commodities) minus 2.07 percent

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