“Energy Surges, Precious Metals Slump, and the Barometer Climbs Back to Strong at 57%“
Trend Following Weekly Report
Alignment returned faster than breadth could broaden.
Energy reversed sharply higher, the sector averaging +5.70 percent with five of six contracts moving in unison up. WTI advanced 10.80 percent, the standout print across the 49-contract universe. Brent added 7.87 percent and Natural Gas 7.36 percent, after President Trump returned from his summit with President Xi in China, rejected a proposed Iran de-escalation framework, and signalled a tougher posture toward Tehran. In the same week, Metals reversed to -3.02 percent with all five contracts lower in unison: Palladium -4.13, Silver -4.10, Gold -3.57, Platinum -3.28. Bonds sold off across the curve at -1.33 percent with the long end leading. Equity indices declined at -1.19 percent with six of seven contracts lower. The dollar advanced 1.46 percent against all seven counter-currencies. Orange Juice fell 10.23 percent, the inverse of WTI almost mirror-symmetrically, fully retracing the prior week’s counter-trend bounce.
For trend followers, the week registered as a regime shift. The TTU Trend Barometer climbed from 43 percent to 57 percent, a 14-point rebound and the largest single-week rise of the cycle. The classification shifted from Neutral back to Strong, and the 10-day rate of change reversed from “Falling Moderately” to “Rising Weakly.” Contract-level breadth was the narrowest of the cycle at 15 of 49 positive against 34 negative, but the barometer measures the share of markets generating medium-to-strong trends, whether rising or falling. The directional alignment across rates, dollar, metals, bonds, equities, and energy registered as the largest single-week barometer rise of the cycle.
The broader regime signal was the hawkish Fed transition. April CPI printed at 3.8 percent year-over-year, exceeding consensus. April PPI logged its largest single-month spike since early 2022. CME FedWatch shifted to near-zero probability of a 2026 rate cut, with markets beginning to price a December rate hike. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed to a 14-month high. Powell’s formal term expired on 15 May, with the Fed appointing him chair pro tempore until Kevin Warsh, already confirmed by the Senate as the hawkish successor, is formally sworn in. The classification now favours fuller participation; the level sits 2 points above the Strong threshold, with the rate-of-change tilt pointing further up rather than stabilising. The next two weeks of evidence will determine whether the cycle consolidates inside Strong or slips back into Neutral.
Top Movers (Up): Crude Oil WTI +10.80 percent, Crude Oil Brent +7.87 percent, Natural Gas +7.36 percent, Gasoline RBOB +4.97 percent Top Movers (Down): Orange Juice -10.23 percent, Cotton -4.86 percent, Cocoa -4.30 percent, Palladium -4.13 percent
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