“A Violent Repricing of Geopolitical Risk. The Barometer Clears 55 and Enters Strong“
Trend Following Weekly Report
This was the week the whipsaw ended.
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial shipping. OPEC cut its Q2 2026 demand forecast by 500,000 barrels per day. The supply-shock premium came out of oil and the U.S. dollar slipped to multi-week lows. Capital rotated hard back into duration, equities, metals, and crypto. Volatility and energy were left behind. Silver led all 49 assets at 7.01 percent. Crude Oil WTI fell 11.24 percent. The TTU Trend Barometer cleared from 48 percent to 55 percent, crossing the threshold that separates Neutral from Strong trend territory. The 10-day rate of change reads Falling Weakly, a note of caution inside an otherwise constructive reading.
This was not a week of relief-driven rotation. It was a week of directional cohesion. That distinction matters for systematic managers. The prior fortnight in energy delivered a +5.35 percent surge followed by a -9.32 percent collapse, the kind of two-way move that breaks trend models. This week’s -4.58 percent is different. It is a second consecutive decline with a clear fundamental story behind it, and short signals have re-established themselves.
Combined with three straight weeks of metals strength and a second of broad equity gains, the barometer at 55 percent marks the first Strong-band print since the early-April decline. The SG Trend Index has advanced to 0.87 percent MTD and 8.01 percent YTD, a new 2026 high.
Metals are where the long conviction sits. Energy is where the short conviction sits. Equities and crypto are building genuine durability. One question defines the week ahead: can Strong be held, or will the Falling Weakly tilt pull the cycle back into Neutral.
TTU Trend Barometer: 55 percent, up from 52 (Falling Weakly)
SG Trend Index: 0.87 percent MTD | 8.01 percent YTD
Top Movers (Up): Silver, Nasdaq 100, Cotton, Bitcoin
Top Movers (Down): Crude Oil WTI, Heating Oil, VIX, Orange Juice
#TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #GlobalMacro #TTUTrendBarometer
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