THIS WEEK IN TREND: 18th September 2026

This was a week in which the performance board and the trend environment told very different stories.

Eighteen of 49 contracts finished higher, up from just 14 a week ago. Yet the TTU Trend Barometer fell sharply from 59 percent to 45 percent, returning to Neutral only one week after entering the favourable band for the first time in the period we have tracked.

The five-week progression now reads 50, 55, 55, 59 and 45. The 10-day rate of change has turned to Falling Moderately. The Barometer remains 15 points above its late-July low of 30 percent, but has now fallen below the first reading in the current five-week sequence.

At first glance, that looks strange.

More markets rose, yet trend strength fell by 14 points.

But breadth and persistence are not the same thing.

Last week, 16 contracts across Bonds, Metals and Equity Indices moved as coherent blocs. All four Bond contracts fell. All five Metals fell. All seven Equity Indices fell.

This week those structures broke apart.

Metals reversed, with four of five contracts higher. The 30 Year Bond rose while the other three maturities fell. The Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 gained while the other five Equity Indices declined.

Only two sectors moved completely together: Soft Commodities across all six contracts and Meats across all three.

Sixteen contracts moving as blocs became nine.

The performance table recorded that more markets rose. The Barometer recorded that fewer of those moves extended structures already in place.

Energy remained the strongest positive sector, gaining 2.33 percent for a third consecutive weekly advance. But leadership changed completely.

Gasoline RBOB surged 6.66 percent, Natural Gas gained 2.86 percent and Ethanol 2.43 percent. The crude pair barely participated, with WTI gaining just 0.74 percent and Brent falling 0.71 percent.

The Energy trend persisted. The contracts doing the work changed.

Grains gained only 0.51 percent, but the sector average concealed something more interesting. Oats surged 7.26 percent, the largest gain on the board, and broke to the highest level on its chart. Six of the eight Grain contracts remain at or near their highs.

The largest movement, however, came from Soft Commodities.

The sector fell 5.19 percent, its largest decline in the period this report has tracked, with all six contracts lower. Cocoa plunged 10.64 percent, the largest move anywhere on the board. Cotton fell 5.71 percent, Lumber 5.62 percent and Sugar 4.35 percent.

Yet six markets falling together did not mean they were all doing the same thing.

Coffee, Orange Juice and Lumber extended declines already underway. Cotton and Sugar fell against advances that had carried them toward the upper ends of their charts. Cocoa cut deeply into its rebound from the spring.

That distinction matters to a trend follower.

A large move is useful only if you are positioned to capture it.

Meats provided the cleaner example. All three contracts fell, with Lean Hogs down 4.20 percent, Feeder Cattle 2.44 percent and Live Cattle 2.17 percent. The cattle rally of the previous two weeks reversed, leaving the larger declines from their spring highs intact. Bonds also declined for a third consecutive week, although the 30 Year Bond broke ranks by rising slightly.

The SG Trend Index still made money.

It rose from +14.18 percent to +14.68 percent year to date, its sixth consecutive weekly improvement. September month to date reached +3.23 percent.

But the pace changed dramatically.

Last week the index gained 2.45 percentage points. This week it added just 0.50 percentage points, about a fifth as much.

Trend strength contracted. Returns continued to pay, but much more slowly.

That relationship captures the week.

The Barometer measures the persistence available. The return figure records the persistence a portfolio was positioned to capture. Some established trends continued to pay, particularly where Soft Commodities and Meats were already moving lower, but much of last week’s broader coherence disappeared.

Six of the ten largest moves on the board actually ran against the structures beneath them. Oats and Gasoline RBOB extended existing moves. Bitcoin, Silver and Natural Gas rose inside larger declines. Lumber and Lean Hogs extended declines, while Cocoa, Cotton and Sugar moved against the structures that preceded them.

So the lesson from this week is different from last week’s.

Last week only 14 markets rose, yet trend strength climbed to 59 percent and returns accelerated.

This week 18 markets rose, yet trend strength fell to 45 percent and returns slowed.

Both weeks make the same point.

A count of markets higher is not a count of markets trending.

For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

Top Movers (Up)

Oats (Grains) +7.26 percent
Gasoline RBOB (Energy) +6.66 percent
Bitcoin (Crypto) +3.01 percent
Silver (Metals) +3.01 percent
Natural Gas (Energy) +2.86 percent

Top Movers (Down)

Cocoa (Soft Commodities) -10.64 percent
Cotton (Soft Commodities) -5.71 percent
Lumber (Soft Commodities) -5.62 percent
Sugar (Soft Commodities) -4.35 percent
Lean Hogs (Meats) -4.20 percent

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