“Energy Extends, Softs Snap Back, and the Barometer Reclaims 55%“
Trend Following Weekly Report
Energy extended for a second week, but this time the move was cleaner.
Last week’s Hormuz spike could have been another single-week reversal. It wasn’t. All six Energy contracts moved higher in unison for the first time in the current cycle: Brent +10.67 percent, WTI +7.99 percent, Gasoline +7.75 percent, Heating Oil +4.03 percent, Natural Gas +3.62 percent, Ethanol +2.07 percent.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 6.2 million barrel draw in commercial crude inventories for the week ending 24 April, with gasoline and distillate stocks down sharply alongside. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve released 7.1 million barrels, the largest weekly release since October 2022. The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective 1 May, adding structural uncertainty to the producer group during an active supply shock. Soft commodities reversed in the same week, breaking three weeks of weakness, with Orange Juice +16.85 percent the standout single-asset reversal.
For trend followers, the week settled the question the prior fortnight had left open. The TTU Trend Barometer recovered from 50 percent to 55 percent, reclaiming the Neutral/Strong threshold and sitting exactly on the boundary line. The SG Trend Index closed April at +2.98 percent for the month and +10.27 percent year to date, both fresh 2026 highs and the first double-digit YTD reading of the year. April closed as the strongest single trend-following month of 2026 to date.
Metals consolidated rather than extended their correction, leaving the multi-month upward structure intact.
The cleaner directional patterns now sit on the long side of Brent, WTI, Gasoline, Soybean Oil, Wheat, Live Cattle, and Cotton, with Coffee the structural short and the short-volatility signal resumed.
One question defines the week ahead: does the Energy advance extend, or does the complex consolidate as physical demand-destruction commentary builds at WTI above 100 and Brent above 109?
Sector averages this week: Energy +6.02 percent, Soft Commodity +4.93 percent, Grains +2.70 percent, Meats +1.81 percent, Crypto +0.97 percent, Currencies +0.47 percent, Equity Index +0.39 percent, Bonds -0.48 percent, Metals -0.57 percent, Volatility Index -5.58 percent.
Top Movers (Up): Orange Juice +16.85 percent, Crude Oil Brent +10.67 percent, Crude Oil WTI +7.99 percent, Gasoline RBOB +7.75 percent.
Top Movers (Down): VIX -5.58 percent, Coffee -2.88 percent, Gold -2.03 percent, Copper -1.63 percent.
#TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #GlobalMacro #TTUTrendBarometer
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