“Energy Surges and Metals Extend as Bonds Reverse and the Barometer Stabilises“
Trend Following Weekly Report
Energy roaring. Metals extending. Bonds pausing. The rotation accelerates.
The third week of February delivered a powerful shift back toward cyclical assets. Energy reclaimed the top of the performance table after two weeks of declines. Metals swept all five components positive. And the trend barometer stopped falling.
Heating oil surged over 8 percent, the single best performer across all 49 assets. Crude oil Brent gained nearly 6 percent. WTI followed closely. The petroleum complex, which had been a drag on portfolio performance for two consecutive weeks, roared back to life. From laggard to leader in a single week.
But the metals story was equally compelling.
Silver extended its explosive rally with a 5.62 percent gain. Platinum added nearly 5 percent. Palladium rose 4.5 percent. Gold continued to push higher, extending to fresh all-time highs above $5,130. All five metals positive. A clean sweep. The most constructive signal for the sector since January.
Bonds reversed after four consecutive weeks of gains. The pullback was modest, more pause than breakdown, but it marks the first negative week for the complex since mid-January. The risk-on rotation provided the context.
Equities recovered. European indices led, with the Euro Stoxx 50 gaining over 2 percent and the DAX adding 1.35 percent. US indices posted modest gains. The VIX collapsed over 4 percent. Risk appetite returned.
Soft commodities remained the weakest sector. Cocoa crashed another 13.48 percent. Orange juice resumed its decline. Coffee pulled back sharply. The sector remains deeply challenged.
The TTU Trend Barometer edged up from 43 percent to 45 percent. Neutral. Falling Weakly. A marginal improvement after three weeks of decline. Not a recovery. Not further deterioration. A pause at a low level. The same level the barometer reached in mid-January before the surge that carried it to 68 percent.
The SG Trend Index advanced to +1.76 percent MTD. Year-to-date performance climbed to +6.55 percent, building further on January’s strong foundation.
This was not a quiet week. It was a rotation week. A recovery week for cyclical assets, if not yet for the trend environment itself.
For systematic trend followers, the message is clear. Energy trends are re-establishing. Metals trends are broadening. Fund performance continues to build. But the barometer’s improvement is marginal, not decisive. The environment remains neutral. The gap between strong fund returns and modest trend conditions has not yet closed. The next few weeks will determine whether this is the beginning of recovery or a pause before further deterioration.
Rotation returns. Stabilisation begins. The question is whether it holds.
TTU Trend Barometer: 45 percent, up from 43 (Falling Weakly) SG Trend Index: +1.76 percent MTD | +6.55 percent YTD
Standouts: Heating oil, crude oil, silver, platinum Setbacks: Cocoa, orange juice, rough rice, natural gas
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