THIS WEEK IN TREND: 28 August 2026

The quietest week produced the strongest trend reading

This was a much quieter week than the last. It may also have been a much better one for trend followers.

The TTU Trend Barometer added another 5 points to reach 55 percent, the threshold separating Neutral from a favourable environment and the highest reading of the current sequence. The five-week progression now reads 30, 34, 39, 50 and 55. The 10-day rate of change remained positive at Rising Weakly, slowing from Rising Moderately.

Yet almost every measure of raw market movement went the other way.

Breadth narrowed sharply, from 31 of 49 contracts higher last week to just 21. The average move across the board collapsed from 1.97 percent to 0.43 percent, while the spread between the best and worst contracts contracted from 25.94 percentage points to 18.30.

Fewer markets moved. They moved considerably less. And the Barometer went up anyway.

That is not a contradiction. Breadth tells us how many markets moved. Amplitude tells us how far. Neither tells us whether those moves reinforced something already in place. That distinction was the story of this week.

Grains supplied almost all of the upside, gaining 5.63 percent with every one of the eight contracts higher. Wheat surged 12.12 percent, Oats 9.02 percent and Soybean Meal 6.86 percent. More importantly, seven of the eight contracts finished at or near the highest levels on their charts. Participation, amplitude and direction all pointed the same way.

Elsewhere, several of last week’s most expensive counter-trend moves simply stopped.

Energy fell 1.57 percent as WTI lost 4.20 percent and Brent 5.48 percent, reversing much of their two-week recovery. Metals declined 0.72 percent, with Silver, Gold and Platinum turning lower again after failing to clear the February highs. Meats declined for a fifth consecutive week. The VIX fell for a sixth.

Bitcoin, which had surged 21.86 percent the previous week against a decline running through most of the year, eased 1.64 percent.

None of those reversals needed to be spectacular. They simply needed to resume what had already been underway.

The SG Trend Index reflected the difference. It improved from 9.12 percent to 9.69 percent year to date, a gain of roughly 0.57 percentage points and a third consecutive positive week. Last week, an 11-point jump in the Barometer produced only a 0.32-point improvement. This week, a 5-point rise produced more.

Meats perhaps made the point better than any indicator. Five consecutive weeks lower, two of three contracts pushing to new lows, and barely a headline number anywhere in sight. It has been among the least dramatic sectors on the board and among the most useful.

Spectacle and usefulness are different things.

For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

Top Movers (Up)

Wheat (Grains) +12.12 percent
Cocoa (Soft Commodities) +10.18 percent
Oats (Grains) +9.02 percent
Soybean Meal (Grains) +6.86 percent
Palladium (Metals) +5.83 percent

Top Movers (Down)

Orange Juice (Soft Commodities) -6.18 percent
Crude Oil Brent (Energy) -5.48 percent
Crude Oil WTI (Energy) -4.20 percent
Silver (Metals) -3.63 percent
VIX (Volatility Index) -3.24 percent

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