This Week in Trend: 29 May 2026

The week extended last week’s direction rather than inverting it.

Energy fell for a second week and split hard at the contract level, the sector averaging -5.12 percent. The petroleum complex led the declines, Crude Oil Brent down 11.13 percent, Gasoline RBOB 10.23 percent, Crude Oil WTI 9.57 percent, and Heating Oil 8.06 percent, as market pricing reflected a further unwind of the Middle East war-supply premium, with reports indicating returning regional production and Strait of Hormuz traffic normalising. Natural Gas broke the opposite way at +8.90 percent, the single largest gain of the week, on reports of a bullish shift in summer cooling-demand forecasts unconnected to the petroleum story. The risk tape stayed firm: equity indices averaged +1.84 percent with all seven contracts higher, the S&P 500 logged its ninth consecutive weekly gain to a fresh record near 7591, the Nasdaq 100 pushed to a new high near 30390, and the VIX fell a further 9.95 percent to near 17.60. Bonds firmed across the curve at +0.71 percent with the long end leading, and the dollar extended lower at -0.34 percent.

For trend followers, the week registered as a breakdown in persistence. The TTU Trend Barometer dropped from 45 percent to 32 percent, with the classification moving from Neutral to Moderately Weak and the 10-day rate of change accelerating from “Falling Moderately” to “Falling Rapidly.” The five-week sequence now reads 55, 43, 57, 45, 32: the reading has broken below the 40 percent boundary into Weak-environment territory for the first time in the sequence. Contract-level breadth sat close to even at 24 of 49 positive against 25 negative, but the picture beneath was a series of two-way sector splits rather than uniform moves. Grains reversed down at -1.12 percent after six positive weeks, Soybean Oil up 5.06 percent against Wheat down 5.53 percent; Soft commodities fell 1.98 percent on a similar split, Cocoa up 3.35 percent against Orange Juice down 7.12 percent; Metals pulled back to roughly flat at -0.02 percent; and Meats extended lower at -0.51 percent but on much reduced magnitude.

The SG Trend Index reads +0.38 percent month to date and +10.55 percent year to date as of 29 May, after closing the prior week at +1.19 percent MTD and +11.44 percent YTD. The fourth week of May delivered a second consecutive giveback, with the erosion concentrated in the Grains reversal and the continued two-way churn in Energy. The YTD figure holds above the double-digit threshold but has now handed back the bulk of May’s earlier gain, framing the month as a round-trip. Brent has retraced from an April peak near 138 back toward 92, logging declines of roughly 5 percent and 11 percent in succession as supply normalised, while the simultaneous Natural Gas spike underscores that the sector is no longer trending as one. For trend followers, the week was not defined by whether markets rose or fell. It was defined by whether the moves were persistent enough to be captured. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

Top Movers (Up): Natural Gas +8.90 percent, Soybean Oil +5.06 percent, Nikkei 225 +4.57 percent, Cocoa +3.35 percent

Top Movers (Down): Crude Oil Brent -11.13 percent, Gasoline RBOB -10.23 percent, VIX -9.95 percent, Crude Oil WTI -9.57 percent

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