THIS WEEK IN TREND: 2nd October 2026

This was a week in which the performance board narrowed sharply, but the trend environment did not.

Only 14 of 49 markets finished higher, down from 24 a week ago and matching the narrowest upside breadth in the tracked sequence. Yet the TTU Trend Barometer held at 52 percent.

TTU describes overall trend strength as Strong. Under our standing environment bands, however, 52 percent remains inside Neutral, just 3 points below the 55 percent threshold for a favourable environment. The 10-day rate of change is Rising Weakly.

The five-week Barometer sequence now reads 55, 59, 45, 52 and 52. It remains 22 points above the late-July low of 30 percent, but the recovery from September’s sharp fall paused this week.

At first glance, a board on which 35 of 49 markets fell might look like a deterioration in trend.

But direction and persistence are not the same thing.

Of the ten largest moves on the board, seven ran with the structures already beneath them, compared with only four a week ago. Many of the week’s declines were not reversals. They were existing trends continuing.

Metals made the point most clearly.

The sector fell 5.45 percent, the largest sector decline on the board, with all five contracts lower. Palladium lost 8.13 percent, Silver 6.77 percent, Platinum 5.46 percent, Gold 3.68 percent and Copper 3.21 percent.

Four of those five moves extended structures already in place. Palladium moved to a new low, Silver gave back most of its August bounce, Gold continued its decline from the late-August high and Platinum turned lower again. Copper was the exception, pulling back from the highest level on its chart while its longer advance remains intact.

Bonds told a similar story.

The sector fell 0.59 percent for a fifth consecutive weekly decline. The 30 Year Bond lost 1.73 percent, the 10 Year Note 0.48 percent and the 5 Year Note 0.19 percent, while the 2 Year Note was effectively flat at +0.05 percent.

The 5 Year, 10 Year and 30 Year contracts all moved to new lows. Once again, the declines became larger with maturity.

Currencies were equally coherent.

The US Dollar Index gained 1.00 percent and was the only positive market in the basket. EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD, JPY, CHF and GBP all fell. The Dollar Index moved above its summer highs and now sits at the highest level on its chart, while EUR and CHF moved to new lows.

Grains were where the structure weakened.

The sector fell 2.84 percent with seven of eight contracts lower. Soybean Meal lost 6.33 percent, Corn 5.77 percent and Soybeans 3.09 percent. Corn broke below the level it had held since its August gap higher, while Soybean Meal and Soybeans pulled back from recent highs. Rough Rice, Canola and Oats remain close to the upper ends of their charts.

Soft Commodities contained both extremes of the week.

Sugar surged 7.73 percent to the highest level on its chart, while Orange Juice plunged 10.52 percent, the largest move anywhere on the board, returning to the lows of the decline that has run for most of the year. Lumber also reached a new low. Coffee rose inside its decline and Cotton fell further from its August high.

Energy fell 0.78 percent for a second consecutive week. Natural Gas was the main drag at -5.89 percent, while WTI fell 1.41 percent. Brent is shown at a comparable front-month change of +0.11 percent because its contract rolled during the week. RBOB and Heating Oil also require roll caution, so their charts are the better guide to the underlying structure.

The petroleum charts have eased for two weeks, but they remain well above the levels from which their recent advances began.

And after seven consecutive weekly gains, the SG Trend Index finally gave a little back.

The index finished at +15.72 percent year to date, down from +16.05 percent a week earlier. October opened at -0.08 percent after its first two trading days.

That small loss alongside an unchanged Barometer is not contradictory.

The Barometer measures how many markets are generating medium-to-strong trends. The SG Trend Index records what institutional trend-following portfolios earned. A portfolio can have many markets move with the structures it is following and still lose a little if the largest adverse moves occur in the wrong places.

This week provides a particularly clean example.

Precious metals, Bonds, Orange Juice and the US dollar moved with established structures. Sugar and the Nikkei 225 also extended advances. But Copper, Soybean Meal, Soybeans, Corn, Cotton and several equity indices moved against the structures beneath them.

Fourteen markets rose. Thirty-five fell. Trend strength stayed at 52 percent.

The count of markets higher told us about direction. The Barometer told us about persistence.

So the question for next week is whether the Barometer resumes its recovery toward 55 percent or gives ground from 52 percent.

Grains deserve particular attention after the breaks in Corn, Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Copper has pulled back from its high while the precious metals continue lower. The US Dollar Index has broken above its summer range. Three Bond maturities are at new lows. Petroleum has eased without yet breaking the advances that preceded it.

In each case the question is the same one it always is:

Does the structure persist?

For trend followers, up or down was never the central question.

Persistence was.

The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

Top Movers (Up)

• Sugar (Soft Commodities) +7.73 percent
• Nikkei 225 (Equity Indices) +5.17 percent
• Gasoline RBOB (Energy) +3.92 percent*
• Coffee (Soft Commodities) +3.64 percent
• Lean Hogs (Meats) +1.59 percent

Top Movers (Down)

• Orange Juice (Soft Commodities) -10.52 percent
• Palladium (Metals) -8.13 percent
• Silver (Metals) -6.77 percent
• Soybean Meal (Grains) -6.33 percent
• Natural Gas (Energy) -5.89 percent

*Gasoline RBOB’s October contract expired during the week, so the displayed weekly percentage may be affected by the roll. The chart is the better guide to the underlying structure.

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