This Week in Trend: 3 July 2026

The week rebounded across most of the board, reversing much of the prior week’s decline, with the heaviest moves back on the upside as the long equity uptrend resumed. Soft Commodities led again, this time on Orange Juice’s surge of 20.32 percent and Coffee’s rise of 8.97 percent rather than Cocoa, which reversed to a loss of 4.02 percent. Metals rebounded 2.46 percent on average as the precious complex recovered, Silver up 5.26 percent and Palladium 4.27 percent, and the Equity Indices resumed their advance, gaining 1.92 percent, the DAX up 4.46 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50 3.02 percent while the US indices firmed back toward records. Bitcoin bounced 4.84 percent after months of decline and the VIX fell 8.18 percent as equities recovered, the largest single move on the board. Against the advance, Bonds eased across the curve and the Meats fell as both cattle contracts rolled lower. Contract-level breadth flipped positive, 29 of 49 contracts higher against 20 lower, with none unchanged.

The TTU Trend Barometer climbed to 64 percent, up from 55 percent the week before, pushing well past the line where Neutral gives way to a favourable environment and lifting the overall trend strength classification from Strong to Very Strong, with the 10-day rate of change reading Rising Weakly, unchanged from the week before. Yet the SG Trend Index slipped for a second week, giving back roughly seven tenths of a percentage point on the year to finish at positive 8.32 percent year to date, with the new month opening at negative 0.74 percent. That gap is again the story of the week, but its character changed: last week trend strength rose as markets fell, against a long-biased book, while this week it rose as markets recovered, yet the index still slipped. The barometer measures how strongly and persistently markets are trending in either direction, not how many close higher, so it firmed on the week’s broad, forceful moves even as the sharp week-over-week reversal whipsawed positions built for the decline that came before.

The chart picture supports a recovery read, though a qualified one. The Equity Indices remain in their multi-month uptrend and are climbing back toward the records they touched before last week’s pullback, so the week reads as a resumption rather than a fresh breakout, the European indices leading where the megacaps had led the pullback. The precious metals are recovering part of the sharp decline they made the week before, Silver and Palladium the firmest, though both moves so far read as a bounce within the larger pullback from the highs rather than a return to the earlier advance. Energy remained split, the refined products rallying hard while crude stayed soft near the bottom of its range, so the sector firmed on average without a broad recovery. The week’s sharpest reversals ran counter to the moves that had just played out: Cocoa gave back part of its two-week surge, Rough Rice reversed its jump, and both cattle contracts rolled lower from firm levels.

For a trend follower the distinction between the week’s moves matters more than the breadth count. The largest, most persistent trends this week sat on the upside, in the recovering equities and metals, while the sharpest declines came as reversals of moves that had run the week before, the moves most likely to whipsaw a position established on the prior trend. That is why the barometer firmed while the index slipped: rising trend strength says more markets are moving decisively, but portfolio returns depend on whether those decisive moves are the ones a book already holds, and this week the market reversed faster than positions could adapt. The market again offered more trend strength than trend-follower reward, the new strength real but arriving as a turn rather than a continuation. The question for the week ahead is whether the recovery hardens into a sustained trend as the indices push back to records and the metals extend their rebound, or whether the whipsaw continues, last week’s risk-off move and this week’s risk-on reversal marking a market capable of trending hard in either direction without yet committing to one.

Top Movers (Up)
Orange Juice (Soft Commodities), up 20.32 percent
Coffee (Soft Commodities), up 8.97 percent
Oats (Grains), up 6.52 percent
Sugar (Soft Commodities), up 5.32 percent
Silver (Metals), up 5.26 percent

Top Movers (Down)
VIX (Volatility), down 8.18 percent
Cocoa (Soft Commodities), down 4.02 percent
Soybean Oil (Grains), down 3.98 percent
Feeder Cattle (Meats), down 3.40 percent
Live Cattle (Meats), down 3.24 percent

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