THIS WEEK IN TREND: 31 July 2026

Almost exactly as many markets rose this week as rose last week. They were largely the opposite markets. Energy went from leading the board to falling 3.10 percent, Crude Oil Brent retracing 7.08 percent and Crude Oil WTI 5.20 percent as a breakout that had run for two weeks gave way. The Grains complex fell hardest of all at 5.42 percent with every one of its eight contracts lower, Soybean Oil off 8.45 percent and Canola 8.09 percent, seven days after four grains contracts had advanced together. The US dollar reversed with them, the index falling 1.49 percent while all seven remaining crosses in the basket rose. Soft Commodities led the board at 1.81 percent on Orange Juice up 9.31 percent and Coffee 5.83 percent, though Lumber fell 6.19 percent inside the same sector. Contract level breadth finished at 24 of 49 contracts higher against 23 a week earlier, which is to say it barely moved at all.

The TTU Trend Barometer fell 22 points to 30 percent, breaking through the 40 percent floor of the Neutral band and moving into a weak environment for the first time in this run, with the overall classification at Very Weak and the 10-day rate of change at Falling Rapidly. The five week sequence now reads 64, 39, 50, 52, 30. What the barometer measures is the share of markets generating medium-to-strong trends, not the direction those trends take, which is why a board where 24 of 49 contracts finished higher can still send the reading sharply lower. Very little on the board went quiet this week. A great deal of it started travelling the other way, and a reading built on trend persistence registers that turn as weakness for as long as it is under way.

The SG Trend Index gave back roughly 2.98 percentage points across the week to sit at 7.49 percent year to date, and July turned from a gain of 1.24 percent into a loss of 1.50 percent inside the month. Set against the prior week, that is the exact inverse. Seven days earlier a near identical breadth reading sat alongside an index adding well over two percentage points, because the moves on the board were continuations of positions already carried. This week the same breadth sat alongside the index shedding close to three, because the moves were reversals of them. Portfolio returns depend less on how many markets trend than on whether the trends already held survive.

The divergence worth carrying forward sits inside the sector that led. Soft Commodities topped the board on Orange Juice and Coffee, both of which remain close to the bottom of declines that have run for months, while Lumber, the one contract in the sector holding a climb built since the winter, fell 6.19 percent. A sector average cannot tell a bounce from a continuation. Metals repeated the same pattern for a second consecutive week, Platinum and Palladium rising near the lows of long declines while Copper held the top of the climb it has extended through the year. Whether the reversals of this week settle into moves that can be held, or give way to the next rotation before any of them are old enough to pay, is what the coming weeks will decide. For trend followers, the signal to watch is persistence, not direction.

Top Movers (Up): Orange Juice (Soft Commodities) plus 9.31 percent, Coffee (Soft Commodities) plus 5.83 percent, Platinum (Metals) plus 3.40 percent, JPY (Currencies) plus 3.04 percent, Cotton (Soft Commodities) plus 2.26 percent

Top Movers (Down): Soybean Oil (Grains) minus 8.45 percent, Canola (Grains) minus 8.09 percent, Crude Oil Brent (Energy) minus 7.08 percent, Lumber (Soft Commodities) minus 6.19 percent, VIX (Volatility Index) minus 5.86 percent

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