THIS WEEK IN TREND: 4th September 2026

The Barometer held. The returns caught up.

This was a week in which the same amount of trend did a great deal more work.

The TTU Trend Barometer held at 55 percent, unchanged from last week and at the threshold of a favourable environment. The overall classification remained Strong, while the 10-day rate of change strengthened from Rising Weakly back to Rising Moderately.

The five-week progression now reads 34, 39, 50, 55 and 55. All 25 points recovered since the late-July low have been retained.

But underneath a Barometer that did not move, the market certainly did.

The average move across the 49-contract universe surged from 0.43 percent to 2.24 percent, more than five times the previous week. Breadth improved only marginally, from 21 contracts higher to 24, with another 24 lower and the S&P 500 unchanged.

The real action was concentrated.

Energy gained 5.95 percent with all six contracts higher, the largest weekly gain from any multi-contract sector in the current sequence. WTI surged 9.69 percent and Brent 9.28 percent, the two largest moves on the board. Heating Oil added 6.85 percent and Gasoline RBOB 5.39 percent.

This time the move mattered. After surrendering its earlier rebound last week, the petroleum complex pushed back above the levels that had contained it through July and August. Participation, amplitude and direction finally agreed.

Elsewhere, persistence changed address.

Bonds fell across all four maturities, with declines increasing steadily along the curve. Metals declined for a second consecutive week, with four of five contracts lower. Coffee extended the decline running since spring. The VIX fell for a seventh consecutive week.

Grains, meanwhile, paused after last week’s extraordinary sweep. The sector slipped 0.67 percent, largely because Wheat surrendered 6.38 percent after gaining 12.12 percent the week before. Most of the complex nevertheless held near recent highs. A sector that rises 5.63 percent and then gives back only 0.67 percent has not reversed. It has paused.

The SG Trend Index tells the other half of the story.

It rose to +11.73 percent year to date, up from +9.69 percent, with September month to date at +0.59 percent. That 2.04 percentage-point weekly improvement was the largest in the sequence we have tracked.

And here lies the interesting part.

Across the three weeks in which the Barometer climbed 21 points to reach 55 percent, the SG Trend Index added 2.59 percentage points. This week the Barometer added nothing, yet the index added another 2.04.

The environment signal led. The payoff followed.

There is no contradiction. The Barometer measures how widely persistence is distributed. The return figure measures what that persistence paid. Positions take time to establish before they can pay, and this week the trends that mattered travelled a very long way.

Energy supplied the distance. Coffee and the VIX supplied the duration.

The Barometer held. Returns surged. Both were right.

For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

Top Movers (Up)

Crude Oil WTI (Energy) +9.69 percent
Crude Oil Brent (Energy) +9.28 percent
Orange Juice (Soft Commodities) +7.69 percent
Heating Oil (Energy) +6.85 percent
Gasoline RBOB (Energy) +5.39 percent

Top Movers (Down)

Cocoa (Soft Commodities) -6.92 percent
Wheat (Grains) -6.38 percent
Cotton (Soft Commodities) -5.53 percent
Coffee (Soft Commodities) -5.51 percent
VIX (Volatility Index) -3.95 percent

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