“Metals Bounce and Grains Surge as Energy Gives Back Gains”
Trend Following Weekly Report
Metals recovering. Grains surging. Energy reversing. The rotation continues.
The first week of February delivered a mirror image of January’s final act. Last week’s winners became this week’s losers. Last week’s losers bounced back.
Natural gas collapsed 21 percent, unwinding a significant portion of its historic three-week rally. Heating oil fell. Crude retreated. The energy complex, which dominated January, gave back gains sharply. From sector leader to laggard in a single week.
But metals bounced.
Gold rose nearly 5 percent. After last week’s stunning collapse, precious metals found their footing. The sector rotation that crushed metals seven days ago reversed course. Not a full recovery, but a meaningful stabilisation.
Grains delivered the week’s strongest sector performance. Broad-based strength across the complex offered a welcome change from recent selectivity.
Equities surged, led by the Nikkei 225 gaining over 5 percent. Global indices pushed higher across the board. The VIX declined. Risk appetite returned.
The TTU Trend Barometer pulled back from 68 percent to 55 percent. Falling Weakly. The retreat from “Very Strong” to the upper end of neutral was expected after January’s aggressive surge. Trend conditions remain supportive, just no longer surging.
The SG Trend Index reset for February at -0.43 percent MTD. Year-to-date performance stands at +4.26 percent, preserving the bulk of January’s strong gains.
This was not a directional week. It was a mean-reversion week.
For systematic trend followers, the message is clear. January’s extremes are normalising. The environment remains constructive. Diversification continues to prove its worth. The opportunity set is broad, even as individual sectors rotate violently. Patience and discipline remain the edge.
TTU Trend Barometer: 55 percent, down from 68 (Falling Weakly) SG Trend Index: -0.43 percent MTD | +4.26 percent YTD
Standouts: Nikkei 225, gold, grains Setbacks: Natural gas, energy complex.
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