THIS WEEK IN TREND: 6th November 2026

This week, more futures markets rose and measured trend strength improved, yet trend-following returns suffered their sharpest setback in five weeks. Seventeen of 49 contracts finished higher, up from 14, and the TTU Trend Barometer rose from 36% to 39%. But the SG Trend Index fell from +14.92% to +9.74% year to date, a decline of 5.18 percentage points.

The divergence is the story. The Barometer measures the proportion of markets displaying medium-to-strong trends, whether upward or downward. It does not measure the size of those moves, their direction in a single week, or the returns earned by trend-following portfolios. At 39%, the reading remains just below the 40% boundary, in a cold environment. TTU describes trend strength as Moderately Weak, and its 10-day rate of change remains Falling Weakly. The five-week sequence is 50, 36, 41, 36 and 39.

Energy supplied the week’s defining reversal. Brent crude fell 13.32%, WTI 12.76%, Gasoline RBOB 12.03% and Heating Oil 7.37%. These four petroleum contracts averaged a decline of 11.37%, reversing sharply from established advances. Natural Gas rose 3.45% and Ethanol 1.07%, but the sector still lost 6.83%, the weakest result on the board. The move was substantial, and its direction mattered: falling prices in markets previously advancing can work against trend-following positions aligned with those advances.

Metals offered the opposite movement, with much the same difficulty for established positions. Platinum rose 7.03%, Silver 5.41%, Gold 4.51% and Palladium 2.98%. Gold reclaimed the area around its July low near 4,000. Yet these were rebounds within longer declines, not confirmed upward reversals. Copper fell 3.77%, moving against its prior advance. The Metals sector gained 3.23%, but its positive weekly return should not be confused with a broad resumption of upward trends.

Equity Indices declined 2.52%. The Nikkei 225 fell 6.98% and the Nasdaq 100 lost 5.08%, with the S&P 500 down 2.78%. Pullbacks that had begun in parts of Europe spread across Japan and the US large-cap indices. The VIX surged 16.38%, the largest move anywhere on the board, rising above the range it had held since the spring. Bitcoin fell 1.23% for a fifth consecutive week.

Grains fell 2.37%, with seven of eight contracts lower. Soybean Oil lost 5.52%, Canola 4.19% and Soybeans 3.28%. Corn declined for a sixth week and Wheat for a tenth, extending downward structures. Rough Rice was the exception, rising 1.95% to another chart high. The contrast between Rough Rice and the interrupted advances in Oats and Soybean Meal remains important: a weekly decline does not necessarily have the same implication in every market.

Meats fell 5.42% as all three contracts declined for a second week. Lean Hogs lost 9.09% and reached another low, while Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle extended their declines. Unlike crude, the fall in Lean Hogs ran with its established downward structure. For a portfolio positioned short, that persistence could have been beneficial, subject to actual exposure, sizing and execution.

Soft Commodities declined 1.57%. Sugar lost 5.79% as its pullback deepened, Cocoa fell 5.12%, and Lumber slipped below 500 to the lowest level on its chart. Orange Juice rebounded 5.52% within its longer decline. Bonds gained 0.40% for a fifth consecutive week, but none of the four maturities has yet established a higher high. Currencies fell 0.74%, with EUR and NZD reaching new lows and AUD slipping below 0.70.

The largest moves were unusually hostile to established structures. Of the eleven weekly moves of 5.52% or more, eight ran against their prevailing structures, two ran with them, and the VIX broke above its range. Brent and Lean Hogs both fell sharply, but one reversed an advance while the other extended a decline. Platinum rose against a prevailing decline, while Rough Rice rose with an established advance. Price direction alone tells us very little about the opportunity available to a trend follower.

The SG Trend Index’s estimated November month-to-date return stood at -4.07%, with its year-to-date gain reduced to +9.74%. The week’s reversals are consistent with a difficult environment for portfolios following established trends, but the index’s precise losses cannot be attributed to individual markets without its underlying positions and contribution data.

The week ahead turns on whether the Barometer can recover the single point needed to reach 40%, and whether its short-term rate of change begins to improve. In Energy, the question is whether the crude reversal extends or the previous advances resume. In Metals, Gold has reclaimed 4,000 but has not established a higher high. The VIX has broken above its range, Bonds continue to bounce without confirming a reversal, and Rough Rice remains at a high. Each market asks the same question: does the structure persist?

For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

Top Movers (Up)

VIX (Volatility Index) +16.38%

Platinum (Metals) +7.03%

Orange Juice (Soft Commodities) +5.52%

Silver (Metals) +5.41%

Gold (Metals) +4.51%

Top Movers (Down)

Crude Oil Brent (Energy) -13.32%

Crude Oil WTI (Energy) -12.76%

Gasoline RBOB (Energy) -12.03%

Lean Hogs (Meats) -9.09%

Heating Oil (Energy) -7.37%

Click on this link to read the full report