“Energy Reverses Hard, Equities Print Records, and the Barometer Slips to Neutral at 43%“
Trend Following Weekly Report
Leadership rotated faster than persistence could confirm.
Energy went uniform-direction down for the first time in the current cycle, the sector averaging 3.72 percent lower with WTI off 6.40 percent and Brent off 6.36 percent, after diplomatic developments around the Strait of Hormuz reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had supported the complex through the prior fortnight. In the same week, equity indices led the upside at +2.46 percent on a tech and AI-driven rally, with the Nikkei 225, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 all printing fresh records. Metals reasserted at +2.29 percent. Cocoa surged 16.30 percent on West African crop concerns and fund short-covering. Sector-level breadth held at seven of ten positive.
For trend followers, however, the week registered differently. The TTU Trend Barometer broke from 55 percent to 43 percent, a 12-point drop and the largest single-week decline of the cycle. The classification shifted from Strong back to Neutral, and the 10-day rate of change accelerated from “Falling Weakly” to “Falling Moderately.” Contract-level breadth thinned to a near-even 25 of 49 positive against 24 negative. Several impressive single-asset moves, but no broad-based persistence underneath them.
The implication for positioning is straightforward. The classification no longer favours full participation; the level itself sits 12 points below the Strong threshold, with the rate-of-change tilt pointing further down. The cycle has not reached the 40 percent Weak-environment boundary, but it now sits three points above it. The next two weeks of evidence will determine whether the cycle stabilises inside Neutral or breaks lower.
Top Movers (Up): Cocoa +16.30 percent, Rough Rice +8.23 percent, Nikkei 225 +7.15 percent, Silver +5.80 percent
Top Movers (Down): Crude Oil WTI -6.40 percent, Crude Oil Brent -6.36 percent, Ethanol -5.62 percent, Coffee -4.05 percent
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