THIS WEEK IN TREND: 9th October 2026

This was a week in which the performance board broadened sharply, but the trend environment lost a little ground.

Twenty-eight of 49 futures contracts finished higher, twice the previous week’s 14. Six of ten sectors gained. Yet the TTU Trend Barometer slipped from 52 percent to 50 percent, remaining inside the Neutral band and five points below the threshold for a favourable environment.

TTU describes overall trend strength as Strong, and its 10-day rate of change remains Rising Weakly. The five-week sequence now reads 59, 45, 52, 52 and 50. The Barometer remains 20 points above its late-July low, but the recovery from September’s fall has not continued.

Why did twice as many markets rise without an improvement in trend strength? Because a higher weekly close is not necessarily an extension of a trend. Much of this week’s upside occurred inside declines that remain intact.

Bonds made the distinction particularly clear. All four maturities rose, lifting the sector average by 0.20 percent. Yet the 5 Year Note, 10 Year Note and 30 Year Bond were merely lifting from new lows, while the 2 Year Note remained close to its own low. The declines running since winter remain visible across the curve.

Metals also split between movement and structure. Copper gained 2.18 percent and returned toward the top of its chart, continuing the advance that began last autumn. Gold rose 1.30 percent and Silver 1.05 percent, but both gains occurred within declines that have persisted since February. Palladium fell another 1.86 percent to a new low.

Grains supplied some of the clearest persistence on the upside. Soybean Meal gained 5.21 percent, Rough Rice 3.55 percent and Oats 3.06 percent. Rough Rice and Oats reached new chart highs, while Soybean Meal recovered much of the previous week’s pullback. Corn, however, fell 3.62 percent, extending its break below the level it had held since August. The sector gained 0.85 percent overall.

Soft Commodities led the sectors at +2.37 percent, but the result was dominated by Orange Juice, up 9.99 percent, the largest move anywhere on the board. That surge was a sharp rally inside a decline that has run for most of the year. Sugar, by contrast, gained 1.61 percent and reached another high, extending its established advance. The sector average rose, but the underlying structures told different stories.

Energy gained 2.09 percent, led by Natural Gas at +6.10 percent and Heating Oil at +5.27 percent. Heating Oil moved back toward its chart high, while Natural Gas rose from its summer base within a longer decline. Brent gained 2.42 percent and WTI 0.81 percent. The petroleum advances remained in place, although the Heating Oil chart shows a smaller lift than the recorded weekly figure.

Equity Indices slipped 0.22 percent overall. The S&P 500 rose 1.06 percent and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.15 percent, both reaching new highs, while Europe, Japan and the Russell 2000 declined. In Currencies, the US Dollar Index extended above its summer high, while EUR and CHF moved to new lows. The dollar-related structures remained more coherent than the weekly sector average of -0.04 percent suggested.

Meats gained 0.83 percent as Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle continued their rebounds within larger declines. Lean Hogs fell 3.28 percent to a new low. Bitcoin declined 3.72 percent, the largest fall on the board, while the VIX eased 3.00 percent.

And the SG Trend Index resumed its advance. Its year-to-date return rose from +15.72 percent to +16.14 percent, an improvement of 0.42 percentage points. October month to date reached +0.28 percent. Across the same five weeks covered by the Barometer sequence, the index has added 4.41 percentage points.

The contrast matters. The Barometer measures how many markets are generating medium-to-strong trends. The SG Trend Index reflects returns earned by the trend-following portfolios represented in that index. A portfolio can benefit from a smaller set of persistent moves even while a larger number of markets pause or rebound against their underlying structures.

Of the ten largest weekly moves, six ran with established structures, compared with seven a week earlier. Orange Juice and Natural Gas were among the prominent counter-trend gains. Heating Oil, Soybean Meal and Rough Rice moved with their advances, while Bitcoin, Lean Hogs and Palladium extended declines.

The week ahead turns on whether the Barometer recovers toward 55 percent or weakens further from 50 percent. Rough Rice and Oats are at highs, Copper is back near its high, and the Dollar Index remains above its summer range. Bonds and precious metals have bounced without overturning their declines. Orange Juice has staged another large counter-trend rally.

The count of markets rising tells us what moved higher this week. It does not tell us which trends persisted.

In each case, the question is the same: does the structure persist?

For trend followers, up or down was never the central question. Persistence was. The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

Top Movers (Up)

Orange Juice (Soft Commodities)  +9.99 percent

Natural Gas (Energy)  +6.10 percent

Heating Oil (Energy)  +5.27 percent

Soybean Meal (Grains)  +5.21 percent

Rough Rice (Grains)  +3.55 percent

Top Movers (Down)

Bitcoin (Crypto)  -3.72 percent

Corn (Grains)  -3.62 percent

Lean Hogs (Meats)  -3.28 percent

VIX (Volatility Index)  -3.00 percent

Palladium (Metals)  -1.86 percent

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