April delivered a fourth consecutive month of gains across all three major trend-following benchmarks, with the trailing twelve-month figures pushing into their strongest territory of the cycle. Our latest TTU Trend Following Performance Report is now available.
The Headline Numbers
The SG Trend Index led the trend benchmarks with a 2.85 percent advance, while the TTU Trend Following Index gained 2.98 percent and the BTOP50 added 1.96 percent. The S&P 500 Total Return Index also delivered a powerful 10.49 percent recovery from the prior month’s tariff-driven correction, marking a month in which trend following and equities both advanced together.
The trailing twelve-month figures now stand at their strongest levels of the cycle. The SG Trend Index has reached 24.37 percent, the TTU TF Index 23.23 percent, and the BTOP50 16.60 percent. Both the TTU TF Index and the SG Trend Index crossed into double-digit year-to-date territory for the first time in 2026.
A Tale of Two Halves
The monthly figures conceal one of the most disruptive intra-month journeys of the cycle. The month opened on the anniversary of the Liberation Day tariff actions, triggering an 18 percent single-week surge in Crude Oil WTI. The following week brought the mirror image: a 13 percent reversal as Hormuz reopening optimism stripped the geopolitical risk premium. The TTU Trend Barometer collapsed from 66 to 48 across the opening fortnight as the violent two-way energy trade disrupted trend breadth across the systematic universe.
Then the cycle resolved. Energy reasserted itself decisively on the long side, with Brent advancing 16.54 percent in a single week and a further 10.67 percent in the final week. Metals consolidated their multi-month upward structure, soft commodities turned cleanly higher, and the Barometer recovered to close April at 61, firmly back in favourable territory.
The Standout Result
The Serenity Top 5 composite delivered a remarkable 7.30 percent gain for the month, its strongest single-month result of the year. The trailing twelve-month figure now stands at 43.02 percent, with the year-to-date return reaching 21.27 percent through just four months. These figures underscore the exceptional asymmetry that the Serenity selection framework can deliver when systematic trend conditions strengthen.
What the Report Covers
The full April 2026 report includes:
- Detailed performance breakdowns for the TTU TF Index, SG Trend Index, and BTOP50
- TTU Trend Barometer analysis and interpretation
- Top 10 rankings by CAGR, Serenity Ratio, and trailing 12-month returns
- Deep dive into the TTU Top 5 by Serenity Ratio
- Alternative 60/40 Portfolio comparison
- Updated long-term statistics including CAGR, maximum drawdown, and correlation metrics since 2000
Want the theoretical foundation for why trend following works?
The Fractals of Finance: Determinism, Adaptation and the Geometry of Markets
The book explores the full architecture of feedback, fat tails, and fractal structure in financial markets, and what it means for how we trade, invest, and understand risk.
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Want a practical field manual for trading trends and capturing outliers?
The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide: A Field Manual for Hunting Outliers adapts the timeless principles of the original Turtle traders into a systematic, rules-based approach for modern markets. Co-authored with Adam Havryliv.
Available now on Amazon in paperback, hardcover, and Kindle.