The Vault

Trends Don’t Form Randomly, They Form Reflexively

 
In my latest conversation with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen on The Systematic Investor Series, we explored how markets actually build themselves, from a single trade to the fractal geometry of price.
 
Every act in the market exerts impact. A trader buys, sells, or does nothing. That tiny decision disturbs equilibrium and sets off a chain of feedback. When many small actions align, feedback compounds, volatility clusters, and structure emerges.
 
That’s how trends are born, not from randomness, but from interaction.
 
We discussed:
  • Impact and Reflexivity: Why markets create information rather than reveal it.
  • Fractal Structure: How feedback across scales turns noise into rhythm.
  • Outliers and Structure: Why the rare events matter most for long-term success.
  • Path Dependence and Survival: Why wealth grows geometrically, not linearly, and why closed balance equity reflects the true geometry of survival.
In a world that never stands still, prediction fails. Process endures.
 
You can listen to the full episode here:
 

Share this post:

Facebook
LinkedIn
X